Posted on 09/20/2008 2:15:00 PM PDT by Ravi
Interview dates: September 16-19, 2008
Sample size: 600 likely voters
Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time
Question wording and responses:
If the general election were being held today between John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, and Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - McCain and Palin, Obama and Biden (names rotated), or someone else?
(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...
At this moment in time this is hard to fathom.
McCain has definitely lost ground in the last week. Gallup is picking it up because he lets partisan mix float. Ras is picking it up to the extent that his targetted mix ever fluctuates much.
So if this poll is seeing 1% in MI, it’s hard to reconcile with fairly clear national momentum.
A Democrat Governor, a major city (Detroit) with a recently disgraced Mayor (Kilpatrick), and just as much voter fraud as the neighboring state of Illinois.
Michigan also has the misfortune of being where the Presidential election will be decided...therefore we should all pray and pray hard.
I don’t believe partisan mix changes that much. I’m still as enthused as I was two weeks ago and it seems everyone around me is to. So why would there be fewer of us voting.
This is uncanny:
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080920/POLITICS01/809200358
http://www.wilx.com/news/headlines/28671269.html
McCain and Obama really are too close to call in this Democrat-voting state.
McCain
Obama
African-American (14%)
2%
89%
Think CNN will say it?
The only thing that concerns me about polls is that though they are transparent efforts to convince Republicans that their cause is hopeless, they also represent an incitement to Democrats to cheat.
One of the important purposes of close polls is to motivate Democratic partisans in urban areas to feel entitled and obligated to fudge voting rolls to provide tens of thousands of additional votes for their candidates. Believing that only a few thousand are necessary to sway their state outcomes, they will wait until the late hours to manufacture these votes.
I have said it before.....
We are Canada's newest Provence!
Here’s another poll showing the same thing. Pretty amazing, isn’t it?
Check this article and Posting #5, and let me know what you think of that.
But... with it being this close.
McCain is forcing Obama to spend money here that Kerry didn’t have to spend.
Just my 2 cents worth, but I'd say the election is very close. Also, MI is not the entire country, McCain could be doing better than expected there because the state is in a recession and is controlled by Democrats.
Rasmussen said today that PA appears to be bucking the national trend and wants to stay tied, they have Obama with only a 2 point lead in that state.
Michigan may be the same.
Note: Polls are worthless though except for coffee-table conversation. Never let a poll stop you from voting. Every vote counts, especially toward the mandate. If you want McCain to win with more than 50% and take a mandate to Washington, hes going to need your vote and thats no matter where you live. Your vote effects the national percentage.
In 1996, the polls had Senator Dole losing by double-digits to Bill Clinton. Some (ie: CBS) had him down as much as 28%. The result was closer to 8% but it makes you wonder how many people stayed home thinking it was a waste of time to vote in an election predicted by the liberal media as a wash for Clinton. This is one of the dangers posed by polls in American politics. We are TOLD who is going to win, and it becomes a "self fulfilling prophecy."
This is also achieved in another dangerous tool: polling people as they are in line to vote (proven wrong famously in 2000). The agency that was paid millions by the media to give them a heads up how people were voting for the purpose of "calling" a state, went horribly awry. "Calling" states incorrectly is another voter suppression tactic used by the liberals, and considering how hell-bent the left wing media has shown itself this year we can certainly expect more of the same.
In 1996, CBS (Dan Rather) called Georgia for Clinton (WRONG... it went for Dole). This incorrect call was made very early in the evening and had to effect the decision making of voters all over the country. If Clinton was going to carry Georgia, it was over for Dole. Other southern states might follow suit, but even if not... the electoral battle was over.
In 2000, CBS, NBC (et al) incorrectly called Florida for Gore before the polls had even closed in the Florida pan-handle. The pan-handle is CST, the rest of the state is EST. You can bet your house they knew what they were doing. The low turnout of the pan-handle vote is a verified fact. Thousands of conservatives stayed home (the pan-handle has always been largely conservative.)
If those people had voted, they wouldn't have been looking for "chads". (On a side note: FL Secretary of State Harris found 40,000 New Yorkers registered to vote in both states, after the election by comparing voting rosters. No wonder Florida hasn't been in play for Democrats in recent elections.
So those are just a few examples of how polls can skew up the works in a national election. Sorry about getting on the stump, but this is my main beef and I can't help it. I plan to keep reminding us as we go along not to trust any poll, please just vote and make sure your neighbor goes with you :)
The union people need to recognize that the Democrat party is against the smoke stack industries. The Democrat party thinks smoke Stack industries, especially automobile industry, causes global warming. Unions need to realize the left (Democrats) are the enemy.
Detroit, home of the $1 house.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080813/METRO/808130360
Let met comment on ARG polls. Have you ever cleaned out a litter box? The contents of the litter box are worth more than ARG polls.
I am here in sunny, 70 degree Michigan, approximately 35 miles ne of Grand Rapids. I firmly beleive that we can win this state. Both state houses are demoRAT, as well as our two U.S. Senators. Our delightful governess has the common sense of a dehydrated melon And who can forget the corruption of Kwame “can i text you sometime?” Kilpatrick, our very own pimp in waiting who until recently ran the fecel orafice of Michigan so effectively. (please give Canada Detroit, just leave us the Red Wings) The point is we CAN win !
What's the margin of error doing the other 5% of the time!
What's the margin of error doing the other 5% of the time!
The 95% is the confidence level. It means that they are 95 5confident the real numbers are plus or minus 4% of the stated numbers, and there is a 5% chance the real numbers are outside that MOE.
The higher the confidence, the bigger the MOE. 95% is about as high as you will see.
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