If the demographics have shifted so drastically from 1990 to now, we should see it reflected in Virginia's voting patterns. We haven't, not when comparing Presidential elections. And for those folks who want to bring up the last two governor's races and the most recent Senate race, my response is "So?" Something like 6 of VA's last 9 governors have been Dems. The Senate seats have been mostly split during my adult lifetime (and I'm graying in the temples). Only recently (2003?) did the Pubbies capture the House of Delegates, IIRC, for the first time in eons (rhetorically speaking). VA is not a "GOP" state. But it is a GOP state for Presidential elections.
I truly don't care about the primary numbers. That's pure speculation. The Dems had a contested race, the GOP didn't, and any voter can cross over and vote in the other primary. Could it be indicative of trouble? Of course. And it could be nothing more than bored Pubbies and Operation Chaos.
Of all your arguments, only one concerns me. And it concerns me in many states, not just Virginia. That's Obama's ground game. If it's as good as advertised, it could be a long election night.
The rest of the arguments I heard in 2000 and 2004. I expect similar results in 2008 - although a few points closer, and I don't really expect the Obamessiah to pull out of the state prior to the election like Kerry and Gore (I think) did.
..."but that in the end I expect McCain/Palin to win by 5-6 points."
I'll go out there with you and say that McCain/Palin will take the Commonwealth of Virginia in the 7.0%-10.5% range. My high range variance is due to the 'Palin' factor and the potential number of women who will add support to the McCain/Palin ticket.
Fairfax County (my residence since mid 70s) has become more Democrat, however it used to be that rural areas of Virginia were the more Democrat in that past. That has now flipped, still some people forget the the Commonwealth is conservative above all.
McCain/Palin will win in Virginia.
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