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Poll: Economic Discontent Boosts Barack Obama Over John McCain (Obama 52 , McCain 43)
ABC ^ | Sept. 24, 2008 | GARY LANGER

Posted on 09/23/2008 9:29:44 PM PDT by tlb

Democrat Takes 52-43 Lead Among Likely Voters, Erases Republican's Post-Palin Pick Gains

Barack Obama has seized the reins of economic discontent, vaulting over John McCain's convention gains by persuading voters he both better understands their economic troubles and can better address them.

In a head-to-head-match-up he's now supported by 52 percent of likely voters vs. McCain's 43 percent, the first significant advantage for either candidate among likely voters in ABC/Post polls.

Add third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr and it's essentially the same, 51-43 percent.

The contest has shifted from a 49-47 percent McCain-Obama race immediately after the Republican convention.

McCain's bounce -- on individual issues and attributes as well as in overall preference -- is gone.

(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; bac; dncmedia; electionpresident; liberalmedia; mccain; mccainpalin; msmdrivebys; obama; polls
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To: kesg
Agreed. The disparity is too large. When we correct the party ID weighing, the result is the same as the all the other polls that have come out over the past few days! So much for the professionalism at ABC/Washington Post, huh? Even biased Gallup's daily tracking polls shows Obama losing points! So how can he be ahead by double digits? The only way he can be is if the poll oversampled Democrats and undersampled Republicans by an extreme margin. That is not going to be the actual turnout figure on November 4th! Not in the real world!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

81 posted on 09/23/2008 10:24:26 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: word_warrior_bob

Yup! If you wanna know what the cnadidates polls are showing, watch the candidates. McCain-Palin are laid back, happy, energetic and drawing big crowds. McCain is going to open 50 camapign offices in CA.

Obama bin Biden on the other hand are loud, brash, attacking and downright unhinged at times. Biden has made a complete ass of himself, even condeming Hussiens ad attacking McCain for not being able to use a computer. Obama is pulling of some states and pumping more money in Blue states he should win easily.

I’d say the internals are showing a different story.

In 1980 the polls on election eve showed a tie and even Carter slightly up in some. But Pat Cadell, Carters pollster, told him he was going to lose badly. It was Carters internals that were right. Still the Mainstream media spun it as all the undecides went to Reagan, making him win in a landslide. Yeah, right!


82 posted on 09/23/2008 10:25:17 PM PDT by GeeMoney (Hey Obama, it's God BLESS America!)
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To: tlb

There’s another new poll out tonight by Ipsos, Obama 44, McCain 43, REGISTERED voters.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclatchy/20080923/pl_mcclatchy/3053371


83 posted on 09/23/2008 10:25:32 PM PDT by Proudcongal (POW/WOW '08)
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To: Chet 99

According to wikipedia (suspect source, I know), approximately 75% of the US adult population is registered to vote. So, how is it that in a “random” poll ABC is able to reach 916 registered voters when contacting only 1082 total voters (85%)? This just isn’t ABC. Almost every poll shows the same unrandom reaching of a higher percentage of registered voters.


84 posted on 09/23/2008 10:26:58 PM PDT by Steve_Stifler
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To: tlb

the internals of this poll are absolute GARBAGE
10% differential between party affiliations and large over sampling of blacks????? you have got to be kidding!

obama must really be doing poorly for abc to spew this horse crap.

whoever did this poll should be ashamed of themselves and we should call them out.


85 posted on 09/23/2008 10:27:52 PM PDT by housedeep
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To: ClarenceThomasfan; paudio

McCain appeals to a lot of independents and to a healthy percentage of democrats who supported Hillary. These groups are genuinely concerned that McCain threw away his ‘experience’ argument, and a chance to have the ONLY ticket prepared to address the economy. Palin has her attributes, but serious swing voters (who may be crucial) are nervous about McCain’s judgment and his age. With a finance whiz on the ticket McCain can definitely win. It is being whispered that Gov. Palin should do a Harriet Miers for the good of the country.


86 posted on 09/23/2008 10:27:59 PM PDT by Embargo
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To: Chet 99

Because of the internals. That’s why.

It’s easy enough to adjust the samples of Dem, Rep, and Indy and the other demographic breakdowns to something that more accurately reflects reality based on historical voting patterns and current polling data. WAPO did not do that. Intentionally. ABC and WAPO wanted that headline.

Now I am not someone who’s been screaming landslide. And I am one who said Mccain botched his initial response to the economic news and the polls that followed reflected that. I also stated he’d corrected that error and regained some momentum. the polls yesterday and today soon followed and verified that.

Like I said. If WAPO had placed Mccain at 45%-46% I’d probably have let this pass but 42% screams agenda at work. No way McCain draws that with the base on his side.


87 posted on 09/23/2008 10:29:03 PM PDT by Soul Seeker
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To: gswilder
Again, I am a true believer that the MSM is in the tank for Obama. But taking it to this level of conspiracy is hard for even me to believe.

It's real simple. They ask the pollster to assume a certain division of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, and then weight the poll accordingly. That's what happened here. Anyone with an ounce of knowledge of data from recent Presidential elections can spot right away that this poll way oversampled Democrats and Independents relative to Republicans. Any sample where the spread is more than 4 points (such as the 10 point spread here) should be treated as invalid as not representative of the actual voting population.

Why do they do this? Why, to help Obama! This is not a trick question. They take full advantage of public ignorance regarding polling methodology to create a skewed poll, and then use that poll to drive their headlines. They hope to excite Obama's voters and discourage McCain's voters. They do it in every election cycle, using the same tired trick of oversampling Democrats.

I regard media polls as essentially worthless. I trust the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls precisely because they are not working for a media client with its own invariably leftist political agenda. Not that these two polls are perfect, but they are nonpartisan, upfront with their respective polling methodologies, and seem to care more about being accurate than pleasing one side or the other.

88 posted on 09/23/2008 10:29:32 PM PDT by kesg
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To: Ancient Drive

Yup... home of Dopey, Sleepy, Scrooge Mc Duck et al...


89 posted on 09/23/2008 10:29:57 PM PDT by antceecee (McCain ~ Palin '08!!!!! May God have mercy on us and protect us from evil.)
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To: ClarenceThomasfan

enough of this Romney stuff. He was never “all that” on fiscal issues anyway. (examples: health insurance, his success in the Winter Olympics was mainly due to securing federal grants that McCain opposed, support for ethanol subsidies, etc)

Now if you said Mark Sanford...ok that would be something else.


90 posted on 09/23/2008 10:30:26 PM PDT by ari-freedom (We never hide from history. We make history!)
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To: Embargo

that would kill the whole election, like Eagleton. The base loooooves Palin.


91 posted on 09/23/2008 10:32:52 PM PDT by ari-freedom (We never hide from history. We make history!)
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To: Proudcongal
Ipsos leans Democratic but I think its right on the money while the ABC poll is rotgut garbage due to unbelievable internals. Nothing has changed. And I think when you look at the ABC poll's internals, you know with that spread, it can't be right. Actually, they may be doing Obama a disservice by thinking he has the election in the bag and can just coast to victory. And I think most liberals won't look past the headline. They'll think their guy is winning and they don't have to show up in November as much as they do.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

92 posted on 09/23/2008 10:33:30 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: ari-freedom

Palin/Sanford, that’s our next ticket. The left has NOTHING that would beat them.


93 posted on 09/23/2008 10:34:59 PM PDT by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: Embargo
It is being whispered that Gov. Palin should do a Harriet Miers for the good of the country.

Oh, I'm sure DUers are more than whispering it, they're screaming it from the rooftops. Sarah is all they talk about. The reality is she's the best thing that's happened to this country and the Republican party in a long time.

94 posted on 09/23/2008 10:35:56 PM PDT by Proudcongal (POW/WOW '08)
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To: Soul Seeker

Good points you make - I am just amazed at all the people on here who buy this. Just look at Rasmussen.. in 2004, the pollsters were all over the map with these games of gyrating polls, and Rasmussen was steady steady steady steady... people are stupid, yes... but millions of people switching from one candidate to another day by day? Nuh uh...

I can see where ABC might want to create the narrative that McCain is walking in the debate “desperate” and in need of a “knockout”


95 posted on 09/23/2008 10:39:23 PM PDT by Chet 99
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To: goldstategop

Or, perhaps oversimplifying, reduce the nine point spread by 60%, representing the difference between the 10 point Dem lead in the poll to a 4 point Dem lead reflecting a much more realistic spread based on past election data in Presidential elecitons. This translates to a 3-4 point lead, which is probably much closer to what it actually was during the four days that were polled (9/18-9/21).


96 posted on 09/23/2008 10:39:53 PM PDT by kesg
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To: word_warrior_bob

mark deserves it...too bad mccain didn’t want him.


97 posted on 09/23/2008 10:40:32 PM PDT by ari-freedom (We never hide from history. We make history!)
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To: ari-freedom

What has happened to the GOP. I had respect for all non-religious Republicans, but the rest of you sold out this country financial institutions to a small group of really wealthy people. Gerald Ford is turning over in his grave. And now you down 9 pts to a first term liberal senator from Il. Face it, dubya used the party for his own personal agenda that has ruined the GOP for at least 2 election cycles. I miss the old GOP.


98 posted on 09/23/2008 10:41:51 PM PDT by h8gop
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To: kesg

another error here that i have been thinking about...

the over sample here of the black voters runs along the lines of BLACK POPULATION percentage (16-18%) not a traditional breakdown of the voting electorate...

this poll is a laugher....


99 posted on 09/23/2008 10:43:39 PM PDT by housedeep
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To: goldstategop

Actually if you read the internals,it says that the over sample of black votes was not included in the final poll results.


100 posted on 09/23/2008 10:43:52 PM PDT by CSI007
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