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Look, I'll explain this again. I have no doubts about Palin if she can speak for HERSELF. But she can't. That's a huge disadvantage in a debate. It will cause her to look unsure (because she will often know the right answer and can't say it---cause it's not McCain's answer). And I know some of the internals don't seem to support the overall numbers, but at some point you have to say all the polls are wrong, and I think we tried that in 06. Fool me once, . . . .

There's a difference between whistling past the graveyard and ignoring "the polls" and cherry picking certain poll results to bolster your case for pessimism.

Your point is why I think Palin needs to be taken "off the leash". If she contradicts McCain's position, so what? She's already done that on ANWR, abortion, and maybe some others... better to go with a "Team of Mavericks" that don't agree on everything than have a wound up machine puking talking points that she doesn't even believe. It doesn't seem to hurt Obama when Biden contradicts him.

Chet, go to realclearpolitics, which gives you a) the most recent poll, not only nationally, but in almost every critical state; and b) the average of all of them.

I defy you to put together a winning McCain scenario as of today. Go ahead: tell me what optimism you see in the CO or VA polls. You can say, "Well, Obama isn't up much in PA or MI." And that's right. But I'd say, we have ALWAYS been told that those states were "winnable" in two previous elections and they were not---nor has McCain led in either one except for one single poll in MI, by a single point.

So whether it's averages or most recent, it flat-out doesn't look good.

And, no, my point isn't that Palin needs to be taken "off the leash." My point is that if she is "off leash," she will be pilloried for contradicting McCain, and if she is "on leash" her answers will be guarded, and likely confusing, because she won't be speaking from common sense or her heart. She was great for solidifying and energizing the base---but now we have a ticket where the ideological differences between the pres and veep are the greatest I think I've ever seen in my lifetime.

>>There’s a difference between whistling past the graveyard and ignoring “the polls” and cherry picking certain poll results to bolster your case for pessimism.<<

Chet, either the major polls mean something or they don’t. If they do, the fact that at this point McCain is behind in most of the major national polls, would show he is at a disadvantage. That could very well change, but if it doesn’t and these polls mean something, Obama wins. Sometimes the polls are wrong.