Posted on 09/28/2008 11:18:34 PM PDT by Danette
HARRISBURG, Pa.—The fall legislative campaign pits Republicans trying to draw votes from conservative Democrats in western Pennsylvania against Democrats hoping to capitalize on favorable voter registration trends in suburban Philadelphia.
At stake is control of the House of Representatives, which swung over to the Democrats by a single seat in the pay-raise-outrage election two years ago that sent 24 incumbent lawmakers home in defeat.
The balance of power in the state Senate, currently 29-21 in favor of the Republicans, is not likely to see significant change.
Five weeks before an election, the campaign map is taking shape in a year in which legislative candidates have to compete with the presidential contest for voters' attention.
Ninety-one representatives and four senators have no fall opponent, and 25 senators do not face voters this year. Twenty-two House seats and seven in the Senate are opening up due to retirements. That leaves 90 representatives and 14 senators with opposition in the Nov. 4 election, although in a few cases the opponents are third-party longshots.
Lately, economic concerns have rocketed to the top of voters' minds, said James Lee with Susquehanna Polling and Research, a Republican opinion research firm.
"Out in central and western Pennsylvania, our polling at the presidential level is showing that John McCain is winning the southwest and the 'T' by even bigger margins than George Bush won them four years Advertisement Click here to find out more! ago," Lee said. "And that creates some real opportunities down ballot."
On the other hand, he said, it looks as if Barack Obama might surpass John Kerry's 2004 totals in Philadelphia and its suburbs, the state's mother lode of voters. In the last presidential election, Kerry won Philadelphia and three of the four suburban counties.
more at link...............
(Excerpt) Read more at ydr.inyork.com ...
There used to be a time (in the not so distant past) when Republicans could count on a strong enough vote in the suburban counties surrounding Philly to partially off-set the numbers coming out of the city.
But now the suburbs are becoming almost as bad (politically) as the inner city is.
And that will hurt Republicans running in a state-wide race.
Political PING?
That's going to be somebody's tagline. :)
Ping
It's not so much registration trends as precincts that are still 2:1 Republican to Dem were voting for Kerry. Anger against the Bush Administration was running very high even back in 2004.
If I am reading the tea leaves correctly, don’t expect a major “get-out-the-vote” effort in Philadelphia as you saw in the past two elections.
Why?
There are many ‘friends’ of Sen Clinton in high positions that have an interest in Sen Obama’s failure.
English translation: "ACORN has found new pockets of unregistered 14 year old voters".
Yeah, that would improve both states.
ping
Suburban PA people still support Arlen Specter too. He is their idea of a “conservative” for balance.
Obama's people are saying their superior organization will win Pennsylvania. That is codespeak for "we can't get the Hillary voters but we have to say some bullshit to keep our people mmotivated." He outspent Hillary 10-1 and had five times as many paid staff in the state, and got his ass kicked. He underperformed the polls by 7%, which means he is running behind McCain now and his campaign knows it.
McCain’s continued strength in Pennsylvania is the bright news of the mostly glum week we’ve had.
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