Oops.
Posted on 10/16/2008 9:52:59 AM PDT by jveritas
In order for Obama to win the elections he needs to have at least 40% of the White Vote. During the 2008 democrat primaries he averaged between 34% to 37% of the white vote.
From the 2004 election data 77% of the voters were white and they voted 58% for President Bush and 41% for John Kerry. Blacks made up 11% of the electorate and voted 88% for Kerry and 11% for President Bush. Hispanics made up 8% of the voters and voted 53% for John Kerry and 44% for President Bush. The remaining 4% voted 55% for John Kerry and 45% for President Bush..
In this model let us assume that the Black voters turn out in 2008 increased to 14% of the total votes (a 27% increase over their turnout in 2004), White voters turnout decreased from 77% to 74%, Hispanics and others remain at the same level as in 2004.
Assumption 1:
White vote: Obama 37% (match his highest average in the democrat primaries), McCain 61%
Black vote: Obama 95%, McCain 5%
Hispanics: Obama 65%, McCain 35%
Others: Obama 55%, McCain 45%
McCain total: 50.44%, Obama total: 48.08%
Assumption 2:
White vote: Obama 40% (almost as Kerry got), McCain 59%
Black vote: Obama 95%, McCain 5%
Hispanics: Obama 65%, McCain 35%
Others: Obama 55%, McCain 45%
Obama total: 50.30%, Obama total: 48.96%
A guy who has a landscaping business in my area who is black and republican told my neighbor (white) that if Obama wins it will be her people’s fault since there simply aren’t enough black people to vote this guy in.
We had a laugh about that one.....
Then he’s screwed and all this talk of polls and landslides is a mountain of manure! There aren’t enough 4:20s, latte sippers, social workers and school teachers to push him to 40%!!
Sadly I think Obama will get it, but gee I wonder why democrats want the floodgates of illegal and legal Third World immigrants to stay open. They are changing our demographics and our way of life for political reasons.
Hence, all the talk about how PA is racist and so is the rest of America.
HUMMMMM.
Numbers are stubborn facts :)
This is what I have been saying all along, the internals do NOT support a bambi win, regardless of the polls.
Your vanities do NOT belong in the Activism/Chapters sidebar. Stop posting them into it.
The only thing Obama is going to get is his arse handed back to him!
“Obama total: 50.30%, Obama total: 48.96%”
Acorn must have got hold of your chart.To make it more believable, they might want to give McCain 5 or 6% points.
BTTT
Oops.
Dopes. It's less than that. I voted for him in the primaries as part of OC.
Very good point. I think if you factor Operation Chaos the white votes he got during the democrat primaries will be 30% to 33%.
Without me digging it up, have the polls this year (recognizing they're oversampling Dems) shown Hispanics in the 65% range?
The 50% white guy needs 40% of the white vote.
Very true.
Good point. :-) Sometimes that's easy to forget as we head down the home stretch.
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