PREDICTION THREAD - PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2008

October 17 2008 | SoftwareEngineer

[SoftwareEngineer]

With the "normal" behavior of the stock market these last few days and an overall sense of a market "bottom" I now feel that we have a very good idea of what the financial conditions will be in the last few days. This had been the wild card in all polling scenarios as even McCain tilting voters were panicked into "considering" Obama not so much for him but more for the "throw the bums out" approach.

Thus, I am pretty confident in making my predictions for the final election result. I want to make them now and am very confident of the accuracy of my predictions. Feel free to comment in this thread about your predictions. The one closest to the actual result gets a free beer from everyone else.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE: McCain: 399 Obama 199

McCain wins MO, OH, FL, VA, NC, CO, NM and does a real close (within 1 point) pickup of MI, PA, WA, IA and NH

He loses CA, OR, ME, NJ and WI by under 2 points

VOTING PERCENTAGE: McCain: 53 Obama: 47

RANDOM NOTES: Most inaccurate exit polls will come from CA, PA and WA

Most accurate exit polls will come from OH, FL and MO

Both candidates will recieve more actual votes than GWB did in 2004 thus making the winner the highest vote getter in the history of the Republic

[sageb1]

Hi, newbie. Btw, “presidential” is misspelled.

[14erClimb]

I’m happy with McCain at any number over 270, but the smackdown you predict would be hilarious to watch.

[raccoonradio]

I hope you’re right. I will say that a lot of people are doing absentee voting/early voting (and who knows whom they are voting for; a flood for Obama? for McCain?) I work for the post office and we’re seeing a lot of absentee ballot envelopes going through.

[Squantos]

Pray your right as we continue the fight against Obama !

[mnehring]

McCain Wins
Democrats sue
State by State, they sue to replace electors in the State.
Obama is inaugurated.

[HappyinAZ]

and with THAT...I’m signing off FR to go on vacation a happy person.

[CondorFlight]

We have to remember that some people are going to vote 2 or 3 times, and that the dead will line up to vote.

This will especially be true in swing states.

Then there’s Alabama, were six counties today were said to have more registered voters than adult residents.

I assume this pattern repeats in many counties nationwide.

So my prediction is, Obama wins with 70% of the vote to McCain’s 53% . . .

[albie]

I love your enthusiasm and would love even more to see the scenario you’ve illustrated. My only prediction is a McCain win AND a 3-4 week post election recount in Ohio, Florida and possibly Virginia similar to 2000. No POTUS announcement until November 20 at a minimum.

[LottieDah]

“We have to remember that some people are going to vote 2 or 3 times, and that the dead will line up to vote.”

Election Night 2008 the premier of the new George Romero film, “Night of the Voting Dead”.

[AU72]

This election could be decided early with PA, VA, FL and Ohio if they go to McCain.

[VRWCRick]

I pray to God you are right!

[I see my hands]

I don't know.. I still expect something unexpected to shake matters up.

It could be anything.. or anybody!

[HammerOfTheDogs]

I hope your prediction is right. If true, Grant Park will look like this:

All with B. Hussein Obama screaming, "REMAIN CALM!!! ALL IS WELLLL!"

[thecabal]

Final Electoral Votes:
McWhatsHisName/Palin/Mini-Ditka - 570
Senator Government/Joe O’Biden - (-7)

[Kevmo]

If you’re real confident in this outcome, there’s tons of money for you to be made over at Intrade should you be right. McCain’s contract is at 16 right now.

[Non-Sequitur]

Don’t know who wins, but they win with fewer than 300 electoral votes.

[ggekko60506]

Care to share any details of your quantitative methodology?

[SoftwareEngineer]

Moderator: Would you please fix my typo in the title? Gosh, that is embarrassing.

[SoftwareEngineer]

Some of you may think that my numbers are too optimistic. They are not. The EV number can be grossly inflated by just a two point swing in a candidate’s direction. Had GWB won two more percentage points in 2004, he would have picked up another 100 EVs.

My prediction is that going into the election most tracking polls will have McCain and Obama essentially tied and McCain will have an upside surprise of between 2.5 and 3.5 points.