Posted on 10/19/2008 7:50:35 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
If John McCain manages to overtake Barack Obama, the media will have a ready answer for the result: racism. Over the past generation, every time a black liberal candidate runs for public office, pundits are quick to assert that the so-called Bradley Effect will rear its ugly head and deny justice in America for another African-American.
The Bradley Effect refers to the proposition that white voters lie to pollsters when they claim to support a black candidate, because of prejudice. Every time Barack Obama lost a primary to Hillary Clinton, someone offered race as an explanation.
It's a comforting narrative for liberals. But it defies the reality of the campaign that gave birth to it. In 1982, California's Republican Attorney General George Deukmejian was trailing badly in the campaign for governor against African-American Democrat Tom Bradley, the popular mayor of Los Angeles. But he won the election by 93,345 votes out of nearly eight million cast.
Public pollsters and others were stunned; they'd already proclaimed Bradley the victor and turned their attention to the U.S. Senate race between Republican San Diego Mayor Pete Wilson and Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown. Pollsters also predicted a Jerry Brown victory. Mr. Wilson won handily.
The explanation for both Republican wins was simple. Voters rejected two liberal candidates. While political insiders and the Bradley people were shocked at the election results, the Deukmejian campaign was confident of victory -- thanks to the information it was getting from private pollster Gary Lawrence.
With less than a month to go, Mr. Bradley did enjoy a double-digit lead. Then the Deukmejian campaign focused on the increasing crime rate in Los Angeles under Mayor Bradley's watch. A major effort was made to turn out disaffected Democrats in the rural interior of the state.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
If Bradley lost by 90,000+ votes out of 8 million, isn’t it safe to say that there were at least that many racists who voted against him?
Barry Soetoro is an empty suit with a whole wagonload of race cards.
Even if the Bradley Effect was real, it occurred 26 years ago when race was a larger issue and some were apt to more racist than they are today.
The writer is incorrect on his definition of Bradley Effect. They lie to pollsters because they dont want to be accused on being prejudiced, not because of their prejudice.
And this is from an article linked in another thread here on the WVa campaign:
“Casey, the Democratic state chairman, alleges...
“John McCain is confident that ignorant, redneck racists are not going to vote for Barack Obama, because Barack Obama is black,” said Casey.
I don’t agree with the Wall Street Journal — we lived in Yucaipa and several Dem neighbors didn’t like Bradley and wouldn’t vote for a black Democrat liberal and they were registered Democrats. They were outspoken about it. I asked one of them if Bradley were white, would you vote for him and he absolutely. He didn’t care he was liberal.
I didn’t vote for Bradley because he was was a Democrat liberal. As for Governor Moonbeam who was running for Senate, I wouldn’t vote for him for dog catcher.
First, I did an extensive analysis of this a few days ago. The coincidence is too high-—it’s not just Bradley. It’s Dinkins, who was ahead 6-8 and barely won; it’s Harold Washington who was polling almost 10 up and barely won; it’s Wilder who was 8 up and barely won; it’s Harvey Gantt who was 6 up and lost by 6; it’s Ken Blackwell who was 8 to 14 down . . . and lost by 25. Indeed, the ONLY races where I haven’t seen this to be a factor is when it’s a REPUBLICAN governor, and then Lynn Swann lost by almost exactly the polled amount-—but he was a sports superstar; and Michael Steele had about a 2% variation from polling. Harold Ford also lost by more than the polled amount, I think (don’t quote me).
Coming “Palin Effect?”
Sadly the Wall Strteet Journqal has slipped since Murdoch bought them six months ago.
The WSJ is closer to the AP and NY Times anymore and the proof reading is not very good either.
Everybody - Volunteer & Donate.
Make sure we are all at local McCain HQ helping out with GOTV the weekend before the election. If you are retired - volunteer now. Ignore the polls.
Not at all true. The Gantt race was in 1996; Ken Blackwell’s campaign was in 2006, as was the Steele race.
Depending on where you live, its actually more serious than that. They lie so their car won't be vandalized. So their property won't be vandalized. So their family won't be harassed. Or worse.
I didn’t follow that campaign but I’ve heard that the “Bradley effect” is bogus — that what happened was media polls under-representing R. districts such as rural areas etc.
The Atty General’s race (white vs. white) showed virtually the same difference between public polls and election day. Anyone know for sure?
That’s why the R. private polling showed a sizable discrepancy with the MSM polling all along.
Gee, maybe the MSM was trying to discourage R. turnout by making it seem like a lost cause for Rs.
Harvey Gantt ran twice against Helms - 1990 and 1996. In 1996 North Carolina Barely went Dole, but Helms was declared the winner at 8pm.
Lynn Swann ran as a Republican. Dems in PA viewed him with contempt.
Coming “Obama Effect”: Add 4 percent to an Acorn-supported candidate’s totals due to fraud. After the first win, make it 10 percent at the next election. Then, there are no more elections, so the effect goes away.
Who the hell cares!
Tom Bradley was a Liberal’s Liberal. He was Left as “H”.
The argument however about race is valid when one reflects upon the Leftist bent of the Candidate as racist as well.
Tom Bradley was not a man of all the people.
The Bradley effect is BS. Bradley lost because of a last minute smear campaign involving crime stats and the race of the criminals.
Bradley wasn’t all that liberal, especially considering the very liberal constituency he represented. In fact, he was a good Mayor, IMO. He served 5 terms (20 years) and was reelected by large, and bipartisan, margins.
He exhibited none of the cronyism of his predecessor, Sam Yorty-a Dem turned RINO, was very pro business, and was as race-less a man as you could ask for. His management of the negotiations and logistics leading into the 1984 Olympics was masterful...and profitable, for Los Angeles.
If he were to enter politics today, he’d be a Conservative Republican by the standards of today’s Republicans.
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