US intelligence: Iran will be able to build first nuclear bomb by February 2009

debka.com ^ | 10/21/08 | Debka

[Vermont Lt]

US intelligence’s amended estimate, that Iran will be ready to build its first bomb just one month after the next US president is sworn in, is disclosed by DEBKAfile’s Washington sources as having been relayed as a guideline to the Middle East teams of both presidential candidates, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama. The information prompted the assertion by Democratic vice presidential nominee Joseph Biden in Seattle Sunday, Oct. 19: “It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy.” Israel has (nearly) run out of time.

[HardStarboard]

>>>... his “legacy” is already completely trashed.<<<

Only if you buy the MSM's trash! I don't.

[BenLurkin]

One thing’s for sure — certain places, such as San Francisco) have nothing to fear. That’s the last place on earth that will get nuked by our enemies.

[technically right]

Here's the way I see this. Back about 6 months ago various intelligence agencies were giving their assessement of when Iran would be able to produce a nuclear device. The times were all over the place but I noted that the Israelis were saying 9 months. Now I figure they probably have the best and most capable intelligence gathering effort in the Middle East and, more to the point, have the most at stake in getting it right. So my money is on the Israelis. If Israel is true to their word then they will indeed act to take out Iran's uranium enrichment facilities. But they can't do it by themselves. They need the U.S. Navy to secure the shipping lanes and provide some additional intelligence services. My guess is that Israelis are waiting to see who wins the election. If the Zero wins I predict that the strike will come while Bush is still in office. He is more than likely to support Israel and therefore commit U.S. forces. The incoming Zero would basically have no other option but to continue to support Israel or risk appearing to be the limp-wrist that everyone has said he is. If on the other hand McCain wins there might still be time, barely, to avoid a very, very ugly situation. I think McCain would make it clear that the U.S. will fully support Israel and that if Iran chooses to continue to develop a nuclear device they will pay a price militarily and economically. It might be enough to get both sides to moderate their position while further attempts are made to gather enough support from the rest of the world to put the economic squeeze on Iran. Frankly this is 1937 all over again. We and the world desperately need someone with some serious 'nads if we're going to head off a repeat of history here. And we're not going to get it with Zero. Much as I find fault with John McCain, he's the guy we want right now.

[Red Badger]

Election of Obama will be a disaster for Israel...........

[capn dino]

Where ever they aim it, I doubt it will make it past their own border.

[technically right]

Agreed. And what I find most frustrating is why Obama apparently still has the majority of the Jewish vote.

I have no doubt that if Iran gets a nuclear device they will use it. Of course they will use their Palestinian surrogates so that their finger prints can’t be found. And in the process many Palestinians will die but after all they will have died eliminating the infidels. An equitable sacrifice especially in view of the fact that no one in the Middle East has ever really cared about the Palestinians.

Many believe this is unthinkable but history is replete with examples of such myopia.

[AFreeBird]

Remember when John Kerry said in 2004 they were 10-15 years away from this?

He also said it would take that long to get oil flowing from our coasts.

He's a tool, just the way the missus likes it.

[Red Badger]

...what I find most frustrating is why Obama apparently still has the majority of the Jewish vote.

Easy. They believe that no matter what party gets elected to the White House, Israel is going to be safe. So, since Israel is going to be protected no matter what, they feel comfortable in voting for the Democrat liberal as they always have since the beginning. The have never seen in their lifetimes Israel in sufficient danger to shake their liberalism to the ground. They do not believe Ahmadinjihad is any threat whatsoever. As for the "Palestinians" (no such people or ethnic group has ever existed) they are no more than cannon fodder and fuel for the anti-Israel rantings of the Middle Eastern Islamic thugocrats..............

[AFreeBird]

One thing’s for sure — certain places, such as San Francisco) have nothing to fear. That’s the last place on earth that will get nuked by our enemies.

A lot of our enemies don't like fags. SF is very decadent in that regard. Also, the Golden Gate is an American icon, just as the World Trade Towers were. And there are Naval installations there.

[buzzer]

I’d guess the nukes are as real as the iraq WMDs.
http://mist.xvand.com/humor/weapons.html

[technically right]

Your observation is well taken and history would tend to support it. And of course if some American Jews are predisposed to take this view they are welcome to it but they do so at Israel’s grave peril. What makes this moment in time so much different than in the past is the spectre of a nuclear Iran. In the past Israel was the only possessor of nuclear weapons in the region and their implied threat to use them, along with the usually reliable (Jimmuh Carter nothwithstanding) support of the U.S. was enough to keep their enemies at bay. But once Iran actually demonstrates that they have a workable nuclear device all bets are off. And that will be almost assured if Obama gets elected. Given this real possibility I simply cannot fathom why more American Jews can’t see the real danger here. Once the bomb goes off it’s too late to change your vote.

[Red Badger]

If Iran finally gets the atomic bomb they so desperately seek, delivering it is a whole new set of problems. A missile of some sort is difficult to both guide and control to it’s intended target, but lets say that they accomplish the goal some way or another and actually hit Tel Aviv (Jerusalem is off limits for obvious reasons). What would the West do in retaliation? What would Israel do? Obama would be put into a scenario where he is required to act and can’t. His political side would be to do nothing and “condemn the attack in the strongest terms” and the American people would be outraged if he did nothing. The UN would be locked up with Russia and China holding veto power of any attack on Iran. Any retaliation on Iran would have to be unilateral, maybe with Great Britain, and would be anathema to Obama’s personal policy of appeasement at all costs. He would be vilified by his own party if he did and vilified by the rest of the country if he didn’t..........

[realcleanguy]

Yep

[Doomonyou]

It’s the delivery date I want to know about.