Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Maverick68
Their internal polls are the reason why McCain and the RNC are still pouring money into CO and VA. If they thought they could not win in either place, they would have pulled out and devoted their resources elsewhere. The reason I care about the published polls is because they all agree this year, and not in a good way from our position. Either all the polls are right, or they are all wrong. If they are all wrong, then there must be (a) common factor(s) at work. In other posts, I have outlined several possible causes, assuming the polls are wrong:

- "Likely voter" methodology - use of "expansive" model vs. standard model (that accounts for past voting behavior)

- Overweight Democrat samples based on a common assumption about expected '08 turnout that is at odds with recent electoral history.

- Known higher propensity for Democrats to answer polls.

- "Bradley Effect" - anomalous answers due to perceived social pressure.

My point is that if we accept the idea that McCain has a chance to win, then we must also believe that something very unusual is happening this year, such that the validity of all current polling methodology needs to be called into question. On the face of it, that would seem to be a stretch. But this year, it might just be true.

39 posted on 10/22/2008 6:50:09 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (Somewhere in Illinois, a community is missing its organizer.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies ]


To: andy58-in-nh

The “common factor” is the shedding of any appearance of objectivity in the media. The media/pollsters are in the tank for this rotten piece of human garbage like no other candidate in history. The unusual thing happening this year is the attempt at force-feeding us a candidate who opposes life and opposes the things that make America great.


41 posted on 10/22/2008 7:00:30 AM PDT by Maverick68 (w)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies ]

To: andy58-in-nh
they [polls] all agree this year

Do they? We have a batch saying Obama leads by 8, 10 or even 15 points. That's laughable on its face, and completely unsupported by historical baselines and what we're witnessing in state-by-state campaigning. Then we have a group of polls showing a margin of error race. Which is what we have had for months and months, and what we're witnessing right now.

49 posted on 10/22/2008 8:40:33 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (Bill Clinton, as Arkansas Attorney General did you make Juanita Broaddrick pay for her rape kit?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson