Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo
Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.
So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.
If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!
So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's
In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!
If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.
The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters
Maybe the 0bama guy is basing his remarks on the number of fraudulent ballots they’re planning to cast.
That's no problem. 0bamanation poll workers will process those ballots, if needed, overnight. Results from Philly might arrive rather late, but they'll arrive.
This election promises to be the most disputed in our history.
“I bet he was just pulling those numbers out his ass.”
And double digits can really hurt when that happens.
Two of my kids go to different large, private (non-religious) universities.
Obama is NOT popular on either of those two college campuses.
Even before the primaries, the kids were discussing Hillary and not supporting her. They said that they would have voted for a female candidate, just not her. She had no support even then.
They were not comfortable with her and planning on voting third party. Obama is less popular than that.
I’m going to wait and see.
I for one, am praying that the "Bradley" effect is real!
I get even more nervous when people even talk about the Reagan landslide. I live in Wisconsin, and in one of the most Republic counties in the State. We have voted Republican every single election, except one, since the 1800's. I do not expect that to change this time, but things around here are not real good economically. For the first time since the Carter administration, my husbands plant actually laid off people. I am hearing normally middle of the road people actually say things about "I will never make $250,000 dollars a year." On the other hand, Joe the Plumber really struck a chord. People are making jokes about "spreading the wealth", they do see the connect. They do not want their tax dollars going to people that don't even pay taxes. So we shall see. All I know is that when the country went to pot in the 1970's people voted in Reagan. What will happen now when we have had a Republican in charge (I know that the Dems have had both houses for the past two years, but do others make the connect?)
Still optimistic, but also realistic.
Obama is done.
Yes. Either he is saying that is his expectation, OR he is making it up. If it is the second case, then he is clearly scared, because he is trying to discourage GOP turnout by making it look impossible.
“...we could be looking at President McCain. He is a decided long-shot, but every once in a while they long-shots do come in.” ~ comebacknewt
What happened on February 3, 2008? :)
They Play the Games; They Hold the Elections
Rich Galen Friday October 24, 2008
http://www.mullings.com/index.htm
From Charlotte, North Carolina Council of Industrial Boiler Owners Annual Meeting
“February 3, 2008.” That’s how I began my speech to the CIBO annual meeting last night in Charlotte. “11.5,” I added. “Remember that date and that number.”
I did my act for about 25 minutes and then came back to the date and the number. February 3 was the date of Superbowl XLII between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots.
The Patriots came into the game 18-0 and were 11-and-a-half point favorites to beat the Giants who were a mediocre 10-6 in the regular season.
The Giants hadn’t even won their division. The Dallas Cowboys at 13-3 had cruised to that honor.
The Pats had already beaten the Giants in New York with its golden-boy quarterback Tom Brady. The Giant’s quarterback was the lesser of the two Manning brothers - Eli - not the darling of TV commercial producers, brother Peyton was the Giant’s quarterback.
No one in the near solar system thought the Giants had a prayer, hence the bookies made them 11.5 point underdogs.
SIDEBAR
The point-spread is set to get as much money bet on the favorite as the underdog.
You might not think the Giants would win the game, but you might believe they could stay within 11 points of the Patriots, so you “take the points,” you bet that the Giants will not lose by 12 points or more.
END SIDEBAR
But, on February 3, they actually played the game and the Giants won 17-14 and Eli Manning was voted the game MVP.
I bring this up because the McCain/Palin team finds itself in much the same position as the Giants. McCain/Palin is behind Obama/Biden by somewhere between one percentage point (IBD/TIPP) and 13 percentage points (CBS/NY Times) in polls released on October 22.
No poll has McCain/Palin ahead.
Just like betting on the New York Giants last February, it would be foolhardy to bet on McCain to win a week from Tuesday. No chance. No how. No way.
So, naturally, the popular press has decided the race for President of the United States is over. It has already been won by Barak Obama. Ta-Dah!
Obama might win the election. If the constant, funereal drumbeat of the popular press declaring McCain’s loss becomes an article of faith among Republican and conservative independent voters, then Obama will win the election.
That is the nature of a self-fulfilling prophesy.
The declaration that the race is over is more insidious because, as we discussed the other day, Republicans will become discouraged and stay home, in effect punishing down-ballot candidates who will lose because GOP voters stayed home.
In the closing days of the race, the McCain campaign has to get persuadable voters to rethink their position on the two candidates. I was quoted in Newsday the other day as saying,
“The question the McCain campaign needs to have people asking themselves as they walk into the voting booth is, ‘In a perilous world, is this the time to give the keys to the car to the guy who just got his learner’s permit?’”
Which was a pretty good off-the-cuff remark so I won’t try to improve on it.
But that isn’t the question the popular press wants voters asking themselves, because it is a loser for Obama.
The press corps wants voters asking themselves whether the Republican National Committee spent too much on Gov. Sarah Palin’s cloths.
Remember, this is the same press corps which constantly chides the McCain campaign for being mean and petty.
No matter what, the election will be held on November 4 and shortly thereafter we will know who won. But we don’t know now.
Any more than we knew who was going to win that football game last February when the teams were still in the locker room.
bttt
Do Amish and Mennonite vote? I know Amish don’t traditionally vote, right? Have they changed over the years?
Thanks for your reply.
I’m sure that within the city of Erie itself, of course the communists enjoy an outright stronghold, as they do within the limits and urban proper of all cities throughout the land.
But it was very heartening to see those huge, bold McCain/Palin highway signs erected in the farmers’ fields in the outlying area surrounding Erie. Especially since there were no Hussein signs to speak of.
When we pulled off the highway to a service stop near the interstate along that corridor, just about all I saw were working-class whites in pick-up trucks and work vehicles, dirty and rumpled from their labor, the kind of people who’ve never eaten arugula and have no inclination to do so at all. Salt of the Earth. My kind of rednecks, as far as this election goes, and mostly voting our way I’m sure.
This is where your argument breaks down. Pollsters do not want to be wrong right before the election because then they are considered unreliable. They will attempt to shape public opinion with Democrat oversampling until about two or three days before the election. Then they will pull way back, and it will look like an amazing amount of independents are breaking for McCain.
This is why by the polls, it appears that Obama is winning Pennsylvania by double digits, but the Obama campaign's internals only have him up by +2, McCain is fighting for PA with many appearances, and Ed Rendell is calling Obama back to the state. It is also why McCain/Palin looks pretty calm, and Obama's operatives are so angry. Because the campaigns are well aware that these public polls are oversampling Democrats by an enormous amount.
This happens every election year. In fact, if you notice, most of the pollsters have been on TV recalling how Reagan won the election in the last three days. Reagan was winning a whole lot longer than the last three days. However, they did not adjust their polling samples until the last three days to show the real makeup of the electorate.
All that to say, you may be right. We may be in real trouble. BUT there is no reason to give up hope yet or to take these polls to heart. Not until closer to the election. Then we should get a better picture of what is really happening in the electorate. However, the fact that everything is beginning to close and trend toward McCain should give us a good idea that all is not lost . . .
Somewhere early on, when he was a long shot and still willing to tell the truth, Obama said he would only run for president once. He knows that most of his appeal is pure novelty and manipulation, and a reheated version four years later would fall flat.
In my driving around in the western suburbs, I see lots of McCain signs, relatively few Obama signs, for what it's worth.
please show your work :)
“I think McCain is campaigning in states he thinks he must have, even if the odds are against him. What else would make sense?” ~ hinckley buzzard
This:
Strategic Vision Pollster Predicted Palin VP Pick last year
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Pollster_Predicted_Palin_/2008/08/30/126415.html?utm_medium=RSS
David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, LLC accurately predicted the presidential nomination of Arizona Senator John McCain in 2007 on POTUS Radio when all political experts had written McCain’s obituary.
Johnson also predicted that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be McCain’s running mate in March 2007.
Johnson reiterated that Palin would be the candidate following Barack Obama’s selection of Joseph Biden as his running mate.
Johnson based his predictions upon polling done by Strategic Vision, LLC in key battleground states and his own political expertise of over twenty years.
“Based upon our polling in key battleground states in 2007 and early 2008, all indicators pointed to John McCain as the only plausible Republican presidential nominee,” said David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, LLC. “Our polling showed that McCain was the second choice of the other candidate’s supporters particularly in Florida which really made McCain’s nomination possible.
Our polling in 2008 have shown that Barack Obama underperforms among female voters particularly in the states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that provides an opening for Senator McCain,” continued Johnson.
“Additionally, John McCain has a unique opportunity to present the future of the Republican Party in his vice presidential selection.
All of this indicated a strong dedicated conservative that would be outside of the box and Sarah Palin headed that list along with her appeal to social and fiscal conservatives and her moving life story.
Strategic Vision polling in the key battleground states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and non-traditional battleground states such as New Jersey indicate that 25% to 35% of Hillary Clinton supporters will not vote for Barack Obama and might consider voting for John McCain based upon his running mate.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
*
THE LATEST:
Death Threats Sent to Pollster
National Review ^ | 10/24/2008 | Jim Geraghty
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWJkOGI1MjZjZDdjYjBmNWRiZTQ2ZDAyMTZhZTI5M2I=
After releasing this morning’s numbers showing McCain ahead in Ohio and Florida, the Strategic Vision polling company received several death threats through the contact e-mail on the company’s web site.
David Johnson, the CEO of Strategic Vision, shared the messages with National Review Online.
One of the messages stated:
My goodness, your polls stinks. There are 3 polls that have Obama by double digits and only yours has Obama down. WOW!. How come your poll is the only one giving Palin high favor ratings? I think you nee dto be careful tonight when you get in your car and might want to check underneath your car. SCRAP YOUR IDIOTIC POLLS OR ELSE!
Another stated:
A poll that gave Sarah Palin and Barack Obama the same favorability rating is wrong off the bat. Be careful going outside tonight because you might not see tomorrow.
A third message stated:
Why would your presidential election poll results be so drastically different from every other reputable poll taken over the same time period? Are they that dumb or are you guys that smart? Smart guys wind up dead.
The company has contacted the FBI and appropriate authorities, Johnson said. There was, thankfully, nothing in the messages that indicated that the sender had actually sought out the location of the company or its employees. Johnson noted that while the messages came from different addresses, they all came within a short period of time, and that it was possible they were from the same person.
Johnson said he’s not fearful, but taking appropriate measures.
“It’s probably just a bunch of nut cases, but this is first time we’ve ever experienced something like this,” Johnson said. “It’s highly, highly unusual. We get messages in the vein of ‘your numbers are wrong, the other guy’s numbers are right’ all the time. But this has never happened before.”
bttt
If you get an answer to that please let me know. Those numbers seem ridiculous
Very interesting. Thanks for posting that.
The thugocracy at work. Sigh.
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