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Why OBAMA will lose PA (Pflouffe gives away faulty turnout assumptions)
Fox News | 10/24/08 | Thane Banquo

Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo

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To: no dems
MI? With Detroit coming in for Obama, nope - not gonna happen.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

101 posted on 10/24/2008 8:58:52 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
McCain is not going to carry any big city. He'll be content with medium sized cities, small towns and rural America. Life's not fair.

Oh, I realize that. Even if Erie goes 2:1 for Obama, I'd consider that a good showing for McCain! It would be enough to let small-town and rural PA carry the day.

102 posted on 10/24/2008 8:58:57 PM PDT by GCC Catholic (Sour grapes make terrible whine.)
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To: Alter Kaker

Come on. You don’t actually believe McCain is 6 down in VA? M-D a few days ago had it at 2 and yesterday I saw a local poll showing it a 1 point race. This is all before or at the very beginning of McCain’s ad surge which is really happening now.

If McCain wins PA he won’t lose VA.


103 posted on 10/24/2008 8:59:15 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: metmom
Yes but I can understand the pride for them.He might not have grown up here but for many blacks when they come to America they are floored by what they consider unfair racial actions.They see Obama as embracing them and that is for the African Americans here and overseas.I know the Liberian community was not happy with the way they were treated by the white Catholics so they started their own church.The American blacks feels we don't understand them so they like him to a degree.Some don't trust him and most can't vote.God Bless Them and I listen but McCain is going to take PA.
104 posted on 10/24/2008 9:00:36 PM PDT by fatima (Let's Go Phillies.)
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To: Alter Kaker

Yep and if the election were held today you’d probably be right. But it isn’t. We’ll see the gap close in the final week.


105 posted on 10/24/2008 9:00:56 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Radio Free Tuscaloosa
Right. Obama absolutely needs it. If he can't take it, he'll have trouble later in the night in the north central Midwest and then in Mountain States. So I agree PA is a bellweather state and that's why McCain and Palin are spending so much time there. If they lose it, it won't really matter what happens the rest of the night.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

106 posted on 10/24/2008 9:01:51 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: metmom
Never. NY is in the tank for Obama. I'd say you have a better chance of California going for McCain than New York. Here's why:

The Proposition 8 (Gay Marriage Amendment) will bring out Conservatives in droves in California. Plus, the Latino factor. I don't care what anyone or any poll says, there is great animosity amongst the Black and Hispanic communities. I believe Mac will do well amonsgt Hispanics, and there are a lot of them in California.
107 posted on 10/24/2008 9:02:31 PM PDT by no dems ("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
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To: Norman Bates

If McCain wins Pennsylvania it’s over for Obama.


108 posted on 10/24/2008 9:03:10 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: Norman Bates

Whenever I look at any of these polls, I always look at 2006 numbers as well as 2004 numbers and consider the 2006 numbers to be more like what we’ll see this time.

In most cases, the 2006 numbers are about the same as the 2004 numbers. Certainly no huge jumps like these polls would have you believe. The idea is crazy.


109 posted on 10/24/2008 9:03:36 PM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (You MUST see this website: http://www.neverfindout.org/)
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To: 1035rep

I agree.


110 posted on 10/24/2008 9:04:28 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Norman Bates
I think so. If the election were today, I wouldn't like McCain's chances. But because he has another week, I think he has a chance. And that's because no one thinks he can come back.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

111 posted on 10/24/2008 9:05:10 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: happygrl

I see your point but having (D) after your name on a ballot in Philadelphia is worth a lot of votes.


112 posted on 10/24/2008 9:05:24 PM PDT by stevecmd
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To: Repeal 16-17
If McCain-Palin win Pennsylvania, this election is over. The only thing left will be to make sure McCain-Palin win the Popular Vote.

Not a problem. McCain/Palin will carry Texas 60/40.
113 posted on 10/24/2008 9:06:25 PM PDT by no dems ("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
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To: LegalEagle61

I’m concerned about Obama having a better “ground team” than McCain to “get out the vote”.


114 posted on 10/24/2008 9:07:56 PM PDT by no dems ("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
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To: Stentor

Excellent. He makes sure to get the point across that there are no excuses. This is very good news. Not for winning elections but protecting the most innocent and defenseless. In other words you must do the right thing before God.


115 posted on 10/24/2008 9:08:15 PM PDT by Frantzie
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To: Thane_Banquo

Pa is a Union state and he is down by 10 points in Pa so better rethink fox news facts


116 posted on 10/24/2008 9:08:28 PM PDT by yenn68
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To: Thane_Banquo
In the 2006 Santorum wipeout, the breakout was 43 (D) 38 (R) 19 (I).

If you plug Plouffe's numbers into that turnout model, the results would be:

McCain - 56.1
Obama - 43.9

Looks like you are correct. As long as we don't get demolished in turnout, we have a real shot to win it.

117 posted on 10/24/2008 9:09:12 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: goldstategop

It’s just my opinion, and we’ll see soon enough whether I am right or wrong, but I believe Obama’s edge has come partly from running an up until now almost uncontested ad campaign. McCain is now running ads at a much higher clip than before in all his target battlegrounds. By simply getting back on the air in sufficient strength and challenging Obama on his main “strength” (economy) the gap will naturally close.


118 posted on 10/24/2008 9:12:23 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: comebacknewt
If its dead even, what do you get? I like your projections. Nationwide I think it would 55M, 45O. That's just as guesstimate. We'll see.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

119 posted on 10/24/2008 9:13:03 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: comebacknewt

Plug in these numbers for 2006:

McCain
R 88
D 18
I 46


120 posted on 10/24/2008 9:14:56 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: goldstategop; All

Don’t forget, folks; during the Primary Season, on the Eve of the New Hampshire Primary and on the Eve of the PA Primary, the polls showed Obama defeating Hillary. Hillary won both states handily.


121 posted on 10/24/2008 9:15:01 PM PDT by no dems ("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
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To: yenn68
Pa is a Union state and he is down by 10 points in Pa so better rethink fox news facts

Your right. What were we thinking. Solidarity forever. Lots of those union guys will forget how much longer it took them to get a job because of affirmative action.

122 posted on 10/24/2008 9:15:03 PM PDT by Stentor (Obama is Bill Ayers' Renfield.)
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To: Norman Bates
Come on. You don’t actually believe McCain is 6 down in VA? M-D a few days ago had it at 2 and yesterday I saw a local poll showing it a 1 point race. This is all before or at the very beginning of McCain’s ad surge which is really happening now.

You could be right. CNN-Time (same time frame as MD) has Obama +10, so it's really hard to get a good sense of where Virginia is given the volatility. However, no poll since September has given McCain a lead.

123 posted on 10/24/2008 9:16:23 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Norman Bates
I think McCain has been holding back on TV and radio ad spending because he doesn't want to run out of funds just before the election. So I figure he'll blanket battleground states with a final wave of commercials before Election Day.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

124 posted on 10/24/2008 9:16:38 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Texas?


125 posted on 10/24/2008 9:17:44 PM PDT by truthfreedom
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To: Alter Kaker
They never would. The MSM/Drivebys are completely in the tank for Obama. You think they're going to start being fair now? Hahahahaha

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

126 posted on 10/24/2008 9:18:15 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: no dems
Wouldn’t it be great if he pulled out a win in Michigan also. What are the chances? Anybody?

Of winning Michigan? Null. McCain pulled out his ads and his ground game, but Obama left his intact.

Moreover last five polls in Michigan. Obama +22, Obama +16, Obama +14, Obama +16, Obama +18.

Michigan isn't winnable absent a game changer.

127 posted on 10/24/2008 9:18:39 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Alter Kaker

I think we are likely 1-3 down in VA right now but closing in. CNN and some other goon(s) had it at a 10-13 point race. Ridiculous.

“However, no poll since September has given McCain a lead.”

As long as at least one poll in November gives McCain a lead it will be good enough!


128 posted on 10/24/2008 9:19:13 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: truthfreedom
Not a battleground state. Its solid Red. If it ever went for Obama, the election would truly be OVER!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

129 posted on 10/24/2008 9:19:13 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Norman Bates
Yep and if the election were held today you’d probably be right. But it isn’t. We’ll see the gap close in the final week.

I'm not arguing with you. The polls reflect the state of the election today. The playing field can shift quickly.

130 posted on 10/24/2008 9:20:03 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: goldstategop

It’s already started actually. I also know that the McCain camp believes elections and this one in particular given Obama’s poor closing record in the primaries are won or lost in the final 72 hours so they are planning a big final push.


131 posted on 10/24/2008 9:21:15 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Alter Kaker
Detroit. That's why McCain gave up on MI rather early. He can spend his money in states that are more winnable.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

132 posted on 10/24/2008 9:21:21 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
They never would. The MSM/Drivebys are completely in the tank for Obama. You think they're going to start being fair now? Hahahahaha

Huh? The MSM/Drivebys were in the tank for Kerry, and the polling in '04 was very different.

133 posted on 10/24/2008 9:22:23 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: goldstategop

He has held back but from here on out he will have enough capital reserves to have a fully funded full throated campaign.


134 posted on 10/24/2008 9:22:33 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: goldstategop

I was saying that McCain might win a major city in Texas, or if he does pick up a major city, you might find that city in Texas.


135 posted on 10/24/2008 9:22:39 PM PDT by truthfreedom
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To: goldstategop

YEah. I see McCain making a solid sweep in most of the south including NC and hopefully VA. NH should go McCain. I still think NJ could be a outside fluke.

FL comes in around Central time because of the panhandle unless the LIB MSM try to call it early again but I think McCain bags FL.

If we see PA go McCain then the midwest rustbelt will all go McCain including OH, IN, MO. Hopefully Bush has the FBI and DOJ all over OH. I think OH McCain voters should swamp ACORN.

We may also see WS or MN and maybe both go McCain. MI is a long long shot.

Then we get to NV, CO and NM. I think McCain gets CO and maybe NM but I doubt it. AZ, ID, WY, MT, NE and on.


136 posted on 10/24/2008 9:22:44 PM PDT by Frantzie
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To: yenn68

Pennsylvania is certainly winnable for McCain. That’s why you saw Hussein campaigning there again recently. Obama and McCain both in a blue state...... Obama’s internals must tell him he has problems there. Looks like Murtha might also lose.


137 posted on 10/24/2008 9:22:51 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: Alter Kaker

“The playing field can shift quickly.”

It will.


138 posted on 10/24/2008 9:23:09 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: no dems
I believe Mac will do well amonsgt Hispanics, and there are a lot of them in California.

FWIW. I live and work in northern California. For a couple of months it seems like about 10% of the cars I see on my commute have 0 bumper stickers. But over the last three days I have seen just one. And I have been looking, because it is weird. That one I saw today and it read "Latinos for Obama."

139 posted on 10/24/2008 9:23:39 PM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson (Barak Obama: Satan's sock-puppet)
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To: Alter Kaker
There's encouraging news from FL, OH and NC. VA and CO should not be too far behind. The national polls always lag. And we all need to keep an eye out on the bellweather state, MO. Its gone with the winner in every election except for 1956.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

140 posted on 10/24/2008 9:23:45 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: yenn68

Don’t forget; Union workers in the Midwest went for Reagan big-time.


141 posted on 10/24/2008 9:24:18 PM PDT by no dems ("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
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To: Alter Kaker

Hard as it is to believe they weren’t in the tank like this.


142 posted on 10/24/2008 9:24:36 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Homer_J_Simpson
McCain will get 45% in California. Same what Bush got in 2004. Unless the polls have shown a change, that's all he can expect from there.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

143 posted on 10/24/2008 9:25:41 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Norman Bates
I think we are likely 1-3 down in VA right now but closing in. CNN and some other goon(s) had it at a 10-13 point race. Ridiculous.

In addition to CNN-Time:

Rassmussen has Virgina +10 Obama,
Survey USA has Virginia +6 Obama.

M-D is a good pollster, but I want more data points. The polling is too far over the map for me to be able to dismiss one or another group as being "wrong."

144 posted on 10/24/2008 9:26:19 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Seriously, run the numbers as if it’s 2000. That’s what I have been doing, on the theory that 2004, Bush had a national security advantage. It was the first Pres. election after 2001, and 9/11 was still fresh in everyone’s minds. Today it’s completely forgotten and the country is as divided as in the Bush / Gore years.

Supposedly, if we get PA, we get VA? But we could get VA w/o getting PA. SO of course I am praying we do get PA.


145 posted on 10/24/2008 9:26:30 PM PDT by Yaelle (One candidate fought America's enemies and one candidate owes all he has to America's enemies)
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To: no dems
Ronald Reagan was an American figure. The entire country adored him. I don't think we'll see his like for a long time to come.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

146 posted on 10/24/2008 9:26:53 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Alter Kaker
Well if he's up by double digits, then all the talk of a McCain victory is purely academic. If we are to go by the polls, Obama is already our 44th President. If we are realists, we are going to be in for a hard four years - assuming the polls are correct.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

147 posted on 10/24/2008 9:29:07 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

I read that McCain/Palin seemed to have @ 1% over Obama in CO’s early voting ... does that mean they’ve opened and counted the ballots or that 1% more folks registered R have voted than have folks registered D ?

I don’t like the ‘early warning system’ .. it’ll let them know how many more voters to get out, or which precincts to hold, till they achieve the winning numbers needed, like they did in SD in 2002.


148 posted on 10/24/2008 9:31:12 PM PDT by EDINVA
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To: goldstategop

The illegal registrations aren’t about getting those voters into the polls. It’s about creating a large pool of extra registered voters that Democratic election officials can use to cover their election fraud. This works best in the poor urban areas where the GOP is hard to find and voters don’t usually bother to vote. For example, Acorn registers an extra 500 fake voters in a precinct of 3,000 real voters. The local Dems then know that they can safely add 500 votes for Obama even before counting how many of the 3,000 real voters showed up. It’s why these precincts take so long to report. They’re busy entering more votes.


149 posted on 10/24/2008 9:31:16 PM PDT by LenS
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To: goldstategop

I’m not saying McCain will win California....but no way Obama wins 55% of the vote.


150 posted on 10/24/2008 9:32:06 PM PDT by 1035rep
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