Posted on 10/25/2008 2:44:15 PM PDT by chet_in_ny
For the past sixty years, whenever a presidential candidate is down in the polls days before Election Day, Harry Truman's victory in 1948 inevitable comes up. Of all the comebacks, Truman's still ranks as the most startling, down to the premature headline published by the staunch Republican media mogul Robert McCormick's Chicago Tribune the day after the election: "Dewey Defeats Truman!"
A month before the election, Thomas Dewey, the Republican governor of New York, had a double digit lead over Truman. Most pollsters simply stopped polling, believing that voters made their minds up well before Election Day. Of the 50 most prominent journalists and editors surveyed, not one thought that Truman had a chance. Yet, Truman beat Dewey by more than 2 million votes, leaving the pollsters and the press to eat crow, which George Gallup, who had been embarrassingly wrong, promised he would actually do.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Lets hope 08 repeats 48. Could happen. I think MSM is scaring the crap out of white people who work. Maybe we will get a MSM backfire.
“baked crow”
“broiled crow”
“crow stew”
“marinated crow”
“barbecued crow”
“crow ala-king”
“crow over grits”
“crow biscuits”
“crow pie”
“crow sushi”
...
I hope so too...but, we need to admit, at this point, it’s not likely.
It took the biggest stock market collapse in history to elect this dufus...let’s pray we can get through the next four years...
...expect Obama to surrender American interests around the world...cut the defense budget a lot...he’s going to return America to almost nothing but domestic issues...expect parts of the economy to be socialized...
...expect the beginning of the sellout of Israel.
I really wish I were more optimistic. But I think this bozo will be a disaster.
and thinking no one changes their mind three weeks out of an election, Gallup stopped their polling.... and the spread three weeks out this year was the same as 1948.
LOL!
The objective polls have O by 1.3% (IBD) ... this election is far from over... McCain needs to put out that the market problems are just as much about fear of an O win as anything... Keep/put O on defense again and again... his asinine raise taxes policy statements while acknowledging that raising taxes means less actual revenue is a point we can jab him with through the election.
Double digit lead for Dewey? I don’t think it was that big. Michael Barone recently wrote that Truman was behind something like 5-7 points in the last couple of weeks. Other historians have since said it was not that big of a surprise that Truman won since they were seeing him get bigger and bigger crowds. Dewey seemed to be coasting in the final weeks. One documentary I saw said Dewey even admitted to insiders he knew in the end he would lose.
As for this year, I still hold out hope the good guys will win. But it will take a bit of a miracle. I can’t recall a time when any candidate was behind in every poll and ended up winning. Still, sometimes these things literally change in a final weekend. As I recall at this point in 2002 most pundits thought Republicans would lose Senate seats and maybe lose the House as well. Jeb Bush was in a very tight race in FL. Just in the last few days did the tide seem to turn.
“
HOW ‘DIRTY’ HARRY WON IN ‘48
New York Post ^ | 10/25/08 | ZACHARY KARABELL
“
Interesting...it must be the “Karabell” that appears on CNBC.
He usually does seem to be one of the saner “contributors”.
A younger, calmer version of Jim Cramer...especially if you check his
receding hairline!
Link to the Wikipedia entry for Karabell:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zachary_Karabell
“
Lets hope 08 repeats 48. Could happen.
“
I pray for it. The real problem I see is that The ObamaMessiah is
parasitically feeding off the fervent worship (campaign rallies)
of all the current and future net-withdrawers from the treasury.
And will probably stay strong through the Wednesday morning after
Election Day Tuesday.
Unlike 2008, my understanding is that Dewey believed the polls and
other positive vibes he had and then thought he could coast into
The Oval Office.
Unlikely that The ObamaMessiah will make that sort of mistake.
But I’ll pray and hope that the tough guy that outlasted his prison
guards comes through.
and at the time he wrote it McCain was three weeks out and at 7 average at RCP... McCain is at 7 now if you average most of the polls, but it appears they are way oversampling democrats in these polls.
Latest Zogby just moved Obama from +9 to +3 that is 6 points in one day!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.