Does Weather Favor Dems or GOP?

Accuweather ^ | 10/31/08

[truthandlife]

If history is a barometer, then the nice weather in most of the country on Election Day could spell victory for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

According to Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet, when voters head to the polls on Tuesday, "There will be nothing out of the ordinary in the weather to impact voter turnout."

There will be rain and cool air in the battleground state of Florida and along the Southeast coast on Tuesday. Kocet says a small low pressure area currently moving through the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday will draw moisture from the Atlantic into the Southeast.

Voter turnout in Florida is being closely monitored this year. Huge lines in Florida for early voting led Gov. Charlie Crist to issue an executive order extending early voting hours statewide from eight hours a day to twelve.

A storm system over the Northwest on Tuesday will result in rain and snow showers across the Pacific Northwest and the Intermountain West. However, it will likely not deter most voters.

A weak disturbance moving out of Canada's Prairies will bring showers to the Upper Midwest, while warm air from the southern Plains spreads unseasonable warmth across the rest of the Plains and the Midwest.

Those heading to the polls in the all-important Northeast will have no weather issues as they exercise their civic duty, with high pressure producing dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.

It comes as no surprise that voters in Alaska will have to brave the cold to cast their votes. Temperatures will remain below freezing throughout the day with single-digit readings across the interior.

Over the course of history, the relationship between the weather on Election Day, and the results have been analyzed and dissected by political strategists, pollsters, pundits and, of course, members of the media. Is the relationship between the weather and voter behavior fact, fiction or a mix of both?

The 2000 election hinged on the controversial results in Florida, and rain on that fateful day may have played a role.

According to at least one electoral weather study, better weather eight years ago could have given the state to Democrat Al Gore.

Republicans may be praying for bad weather on Tuesday, even though the gap between John McCain and Barack Obama appears to be closing. RealClearPolitics.com reports today that the polls put Obama ahead by anywhere from 3 points to 15 points over his GOP rival.

The common belief is that bad weather hurts Democrats, because more Democrats live in cities and either walk or take public transit to polling stations. A rainy or snowy election day could discourage many Democrat voters from standing in long lines at busy urban polling places.

There may be some truth to the theory. In 2005, a team of political scientists led by Professor Brad Gomez of the University of Georgia completed a ground-breaking study titled "The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," published in the June 2007 issue of the Journal of Politics.

Despite the tongue-in-cheek title, the study found the weather "may have contributed to two Electoral College outcomes, the 1960 and 2000 presidential elections," and "poor weather is also shown to benefit the Republican party's vote share."

The research team analyzed the impact of the weather on voter turnout in 14 U.S. presidential elections and concluded that rain reduced voter turnout by a rate of just under 1 percent per inch, while voter turnout dropped by almost one-half of one percent for each inch of snow.

The study concluded that had it not been a bright and sunny day in Pennsylvania, Delaware and New Jersey on Nov. 8, 1960, Richard Nixon would likely have defeated John F. Kennedy to become the 35th President of the United States.

[The Hound Passer]

If Bush was really supporting McCain, he would have caused bad weather, perhaps even a hurricane.

I'm sure he would but Rove took the hurricane machine with him when he left and it's in dry storage right now.

[CHEE]

Did the weather expert factor in the early voting crap?

[uglybiker]

Depends if the buses can get through the storm

Let's put Ray Nagine in charge of 'em!