Posted on 11/01/2008 10:32:48 PM PDT by Chet 99
Reporter / Bristol Herald Courier Published: November 2, 2008
While Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama maintains a small lead over Republican candidate John McCain in Virginia, an unusually high percentage of undecided voters is likely to determine the outcome in Virginia, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll.
“Usually you expect the undecided vote to be down around 5 percent going into the final weekend,” said J. Bradford Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. “But here we’ve got 9 percent, which is large for a presidential race and the fact that it’s overwhelmingly white voters is interesting.”
Commissioned by several news organizations including the Herald Courier, the poll shows that 47 percent of likely voters statewide currently support Obama and 44 percent support McCain. However, 9 percent of those polled remain undecided – which Coker said is not unprecedented.
“The closest level of undecided voters in any major Virginia election is 8 percent in the 1989, Doug Wilder-Marshall Coleman governor’s race, which notably involved the first African-American candidate to seriously contest for that office,” Coker wrote in his analysis of the poll results.
Coker’s firm interviewed 645 registered voters statewide Wednesday and Thursday. The margin of error for the poll is 4 percentage points.
The firm also released a report Saturday on candidate favorability ratings in eight battleground states, which include Virginia. Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Pennsylvania join Virginia in leaning toward Obama. Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio are leaning toward McCain. In none of those states, however, does the leading candidate beat the poll’s 4-point margin of error. Pennsylvania joins Virginia with 9 percent undecided voters, which is the highest number of undecideds among those battleground states.
In a telephone interview Saturday, Coker said: “What’s gonna be interesting is if this undecided vote breaks conventionally and splits, or if it all goes one way to Obama or McCain.”
Of undecided voters in Virginia, the poll reveals 93 percent are white and 75 percent do not live in Northern Virginia.
In Virginia’s 1989 gubernatorial race, Coker said, 96 percent of the undecided voters were white, and on Election Day the undecided whites “broke almost all in favor of [the white candidate] Coleman.” “It will be interesting to see if 20 years is going to change things,” he said.
Also in his poll analysis, Coker mentions “the Bradley Effect,” which refers to the 1982 California governor’s race, and is “defined as the tendency of white voters to tell pollsters they were “undecided” rather than admit they were voting against the black candidate.”
The poll, which Coker began in September, shows Obama’s favorable ratings rising steadily from 44 percent to 47 percent, while McCain’s have fallen from 47 percent in early September to 44 percent in November.
ahunter@bristolnews.com | (276) 645-2531
And there is also the margin of error. If the polls are within that, then it is essentially a dead heat. The MSM reports Obama in the lead regardless of the margin of error and McCain is always tied when leading by a similar amount within the margin of error.
I just don’t see any way that Obama wins Virginia or North Carolina. The media thinks that Obama is working so hard in these two states because he can do better than Kerry did. I have a different theory. My theory is that he is trying so hard in these two states because he may lose PA and wants to put McCain on the defensive in these two states and Florida in order to keep him out of PA.
No, McCain doesn't have a chance. He's in the driver's seat. And has been.
“You watch. When McCain-Palin wins VA, NC, and/or PA, the RAT media will say “too close to call” until at least 9pm eastern 7pm mountain. Man, they are rotten jerks. “
Of course the Rat media can but Michael Barone and Fox won’t. Barone is one of the best in the business. He will be working to get the conclusive information out as fast as possible.
The Rat media will have no choice but to follow.
The Palin Effect is going to be in high gear in VA. Catholics including my uncle’s family will be getting an admonition today in church no doubt. And I’m sure that will be one of the smaller churches doing the same.
These people are mobilized and will be coming out for Sarah if not Johnny Mac.
“In other words, they’re voting for McCain. McCain wins VA 52-48. “
That sounds about right. Even if the undecideds only split 2 to 1 for McCain, its a tossup.
IT’S ALL ABOUT GOTV.
True. They wont give any swing state early.
In 1996, they called the NH Senate race for the Dems. They had to retract it the next day.
In 2000, NPR called Florida for Gore before the polls even closed and we know how that turned out.
I wont be listening to garbage on the TV from the liberal media. They are worse than useless.
Ya think?
“Not sure what this is supposed to mean... “
IT MEANS THE RACE IS CLOSE AND EVERY EFFORT HELPS.
9% undecided means that the LAST-MINUTE DECIDERS WILL DECIDE THE ELECTION.
Obama hasn’t won. McCain hasn’t won. The race is too close to call.
Go to johnmccain.com and signup to make some GOTV calls and you can make a difference.
“And don’t worry, my anger will burn like a thousand suns if Big ears snatches this one.”
Dittos on this. If Obama wins, there will be a big level of resolve to fight his socialism.
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