Posted on 11/02/2008 9:22:31 AM PST by tatown
I fear this isn’t going to be enough. I pray for a miracle, but I fear the worst.
Why so pessimistic? With all that we know about the polls, you should be either optimistic or neutral.
Ahhh, a Puma. Welcome.
Here is my report for today:
Obama has now dropped .3% below the burnt toast level of 47%. [Insert usual disclaimers here about sample size, margin of error, etc.]
As usual, here is the reweighting of the top line numbers at the 2004 distribution of party ID (37R, 37D, 26I):
McCain 47.6
Obama 44.5
Und 7.9
These numbers point to a 3-4 win for McCain based on past election returns and exit poll data.
If, instead, I use the more Obama-friendly party ID distribution of the lower-turnout 1996 and 2000 elections (39D, 35R, 26I), I get this:
McCain 46.0
Obama 46.1
Und 7.9
These numbers point to a closer McCain win (50-48ish), based on the same exit poll data and election history.
Here is what I get when I do not reweight the poll for party ID, but do reweight it by area type (urban/suburban/rural) — most national polls (including TIPP) tend to undersample GOP-friendly rural voters, who have the highest “hang up” rate on pollsters).
Obama 46.7
McCain 44.2
Obama’s area type number is the same as the top line number, but McCain dipped by 0.4 points. But I’m not concerned. I think this is still the Halloween effect from Friday’s polling (which TIPP expressly acknowledged yesterday), plus a few more families with children in the burbs doing what families with children in the burbs do on Saturdays — getting out of the house. [Note: until learning about the significance of the “area type” demographic from McCain’s pollster a week or so ago, I never subscribed to the “weekend polls favor Democrats.” Now I do, although I suspect that it doesn’t skew the national numbers by all that much. Of course, a good pollster can compensate for this by re-weighting his polls by area type.]
A few more observations, again with the disclaimer that we are talking about small sample sizes within the subgroup. Take all of these comments with a healthy grain of salt.
McCain is now even in the Midwest (where many key battleground states are) with a whopping 12% of voters still undecided in that region.
This is potentially huge: McCain is now slightly ahead in the 25 and older group, with 11% of seniors still undecided.
McCain is now outperforming Bush among male voters and underperforming Bush with female voters. But he should close the female gap with the remaining undecided female voters and end up only slightly behind Bush. Reading this poll and the 2004 exit poll together, it is almost certain that the remaining women undecided voters supported Bush in 2004.
McCain is finally winning the Catholic vote, with another 11% in this slightly GOP-friendly demographic still undecided. Indeed, although this subsample is probably too small to leap to my next thought, I’ll blurt it out anyway: McCain has a chance to do better with Catholic voters than Bush did four years ago against Catholic Kerry. The Catholic vote will be especially important in Ohio, Pennsylvania, NH, and WI. It may also help McCain win a few more Hispanic votes in NV, CO, and NM.
One last parting comment: Oct. 29 (Obamammercial day) drops off of tomorrow’s result. I doubt that this will have any material effect on the poll itself.
Only one more of these to go! Yay.
Obama isn't getting as much black support as Kerry or Algore did. In VA, he's getting 88%--barely exceeding Kerry's 87 national number. In PA, he's only getting 80% black support.
Yet SurveyUSA says that he's tied with McCain in white PA voters???? Please.
What do you mean your "overnights?'
Sorry, I’m trying...I’ve been pushing optimism for months now...the liberals just got to me this morning. We’re still contributing and making calls. Hoping for the best!
Couldn't the same thing be said of you and the rest of us FReepers? I don't see why a Puma would want to be over there listening to the BS anymore than we would. Go Pumas!
Well done!
Now just to make me feel warm & fuzzy, I’d like to see all of the trackers continue their move towards McCain tomorrow. That would confirm without a doubt to me where we are headed.
Hi PUMA,welcome to the forum.I sure know a lot of PUMA’s.I am here in PA.
Pollsters are underreporting the Jewish vote that will go for McCain-Palin as something around 16%.
However, when the 41,000 American Jews who are presently abroad in Israel voted by absentee and “exit polling” was done on that group, McCain-Palin won 3:1 (75%) of the votes. That should indicate that we certainly should be able to at least double the 16% currently being figured for the Jewish vote inside the U.S. to be at least 32% or one-third.
This is especially when the largest Jewish newspaper and the only orthodox Jewish newspaper in the United states have both endorsed McCain-Palin.
Then factor in these groups:
24% of Hillary Clinton supporters, the PUMAs, which according to them number approximately 4 million with good representation in Pennsylvania and the fact that PUMAs are lying to pollsters about their vote choice and they are among the registered democrats
The 3:1 military vote for McCain-Palin
The conservative values of Cuban hispanics in Florida who are heavily for McCain-Palin
The pro-life reminders that have been given to the Catholic faithful (who are registered democrats) by several key Catholic bishops especially the one in Denver and one in Pennsylvania
The union members (who are registered democrats) who are voting McCain-Palin to retain secret balloting when voting at union meetings
All of the volunteer efforts of Democrats for McCain-Palin
The conservative black ministers who are blasting the Obama-Biden ticket for its pro-choice stance
and the list goes on and on and on...
McCain-Palin are being elected by the most improbable COALITION of all time!!!!!!
Heritage-wise, Obama himself is only 6.25% black, he’s double that in % white, and he’s about 75% arab blood.
Religious black conservatives are especially not drinking the Obama Koolaid.
Also, Obama’s radical past and likely radical political agenda is FINALLY percolating through the even the most socially insulated of African-American communities.
Tangental comment: I’m surprised by the numbers in this poll saying Jews pick Obama 78%-19%.
Yeah, I have been predicting all along that Obama won’t receive over 46% of the popular vote. I think Republican turnout is going to be MASSIVE. The GOTV in this campaign is bigger than Bush 2004.
This is very interesting. First, it gives Obama an eight point turnout advantage, which is six points too high.
Second, it oversampled the Philly area and slightly oversampled the Pittsburgh area as well; with reweighing the numbers become 50.0-44.4 (with the six point oversample). Actually, the numbers are even closer than that because Survey USA did not survey anyone in NW PA, which is a light red area.
Third, here is where it gets really interesting. Even with that extra six point advantage, Obama is performing barely at Kerry levels in the Pittsburgh and Central parts of the state, five points UNDER Kerry in the SW portion of the state (students of Obama’s huge PA primary loss to Hillary will start nodding their heads at this point), and only slightly better than Kerry in the NE part of the state. He may be in bigger trouble in PA than I thought.
Finally, McCain has three events in PA today and tomorrow: one in Delaware County in SE PA (57-42 Kerry in 2004), one in Scranton in NE PA (won 56-43 by Kerry four years ago, and one in Moon Township (Pittsburgh area, win by Kerry 53-46). I would surmise that McCain is going for the kill and he seems much closer than Bush ever did to getting it.
If this poll is right, and once you take a few more things into consideration, PA is not just razor close, it’s now tilting ever so slightly to McCain.
Added to that, there’s a fear element that wasn’t present before.
Are you posting this in the wrong thread by chance?
Just wait until you see what I just gleaned from the latest Survey USA poll for PA. See No. 137 in this thread.
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