Survey USA VA: Obama +4

[Ed25]

McCain +5 since last poll

[romanesq]

Take NH and VA for McCain-Palin!

[Chet 99]

A Month Ago, McCain Led by 9 Among VA Whites ... Now He Leads by 17 Among VA Whites ... And So ... Virginia whites veer back toward John McCain in the campaign's final 72 hours, helping the Republican to close to within 4 points of Democrat Barack Obama, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WJLA-TV Washington DC, WTVR-TV Richmond, and WJHL-TV Tri-Cities. Obama, in interviews through Saturday night 11/01/08, leads 50% to 46%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA VA poll 1 week ago, McCain is up 3, Obama is down 2. Among voters age 35 to 49, McCain leads today for the first time in 7 weeks. Immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 22 points among white Virginians. That narrowed to a 9-point McCain lead when the stock market fell. Now, at the wire, McCain is back up to a 17 point advantage among whites. In the Shenandoah, McCain moves ahead of Obama. In the DC suburbs, McCain slices into Obama's lead. Virginia men continued to be more affected by events than Virginia women. 800 adults interviewed 10/30/08 through 11/01/08. Of them, 748 were registered to vote. Of them, 672 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before election day.

[Rocko]

McMentum.

[CSI007]

How the heck can McCain be leading in all of these groups and be losing by 4 pts?

[mhx]

If McCain is down by 5 points or less on election day, he’s got it made. I think that would be an easy win.

If down by 5-10 points, it will be close.

[CycloneGOP]

Survey USA is known to severly overweight its RATS sample.

Good news for Mac.

[joinedafterattack]

Everyone write Drudge to get this up.

[paul544]

Since there’s no link, when was the last one?

[Boucheau]

“How the heck can McCain be leading in all of these groups and be losing by 4 pts?”

Democrat “sorcery”, baby, Democrat “sorcery”.

[romanesq]

Yep, I will email Drudge but not without a link.

[Ed25]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bccf3ebd-67cc-4a9d-a5fb-c77588567594

[AmericanVictory]

Republican monitors need to keep an eye on blacks from Carolina tidewater who work in shipping related industries across the border voting twice. It’s been going on for years but this year it will be way up.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Because of the earthquake that happened between 2006 and now that swallowed up a whole lot of Republicans and a bunch of Independents and spit out a whole lot more Democrats than there used to be.

With these huge demographic shifts occurring so quickly, I’m sorry I didn’t get into the moving business, because moving vans must be very much in demand.

[paul544]

So from 1 week ago, it was 52-43. That’s some serious movement. The notes at the link are also very telling.

[GoMonster]

survey usa does not weight by party...

[Chet 99]

SurveyUSA’s final 2004 poll of VA had Bush beating Kerry by 4. Bush won by 9:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/elections/2004/va/

[randita]

If they don’t weight by party, do they just keep calling people randomly until they get the sample size they want?

Conservative refusal rate is quite high, so how do you get an accurate reflection of the electorate?

[Onerom99]

Correct. They use whoever answers, they don’t alter any numbers. In a year with high number of “hangups”, as has been reported by polling outfits this year, I think they would be quite inaccurate.

[cmt21]

The party ID this week is more realistic. This week, it’s D+2. Last week, they had D+9. In 2004, the party breakdown was R+4. In 2006, it was R+3. I think worst case scenario this year will be an even D/R ratio, but I believe it will be better than that for Republicans.