Posted on 11/02/2008 12:30:36 PM PST by Retired Greyhound
On a brief jump flight from Philadelphia to Scranton, McCain adviser Charlie Black and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback came back to talk up the campaign's conviction that the glass if half full. "Four years ago at this point, George W. Bush was down five points in Iowa," Brownback said. "Today John McCain is down one point in Iowa."
He was citing an unreleased internal McCain campaign poll of the state, which was completed last Thursday, said Black. (The campaign stopped doing its own polling after Thursday, he added, because television time through the election all had to be purchased by Friday.) However, public polls in Iowa suggest that McCain is still in a big hole. Last week, the Des Moines Register poll, which has a good record of prediction in that state, put McCain's deficit at 17 points, with Barack Obama garnering 54 percent of the support.
"McCain is in a good position to win every red state," Black said. "Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa." Polls have narrowed sharply in Pennsylvania in recent weeks, though Obama still has a sizable lead of 7 points in the Real Clear Politics average. Black said he had seen a poll recently that showed McCain tied in the Philadelphia suburbs, a crucial swing region of the state.
(Excerpt) Read more at swampland.blogs.time.com ...
wrong... internal polling didn't show Kerry winning... exit polling on election day showed him winning... that's because the exit pollers were mainly asking women voters... not a good poll... but this had nothing to do with internal polling... in fact, during all the campaigning, Kerry is known to have said, "I can't believe I'm losing to this idiot."
You can bet they’ll be slow to call anything for McCain...its part of the plan
Start the process mathematically ignoring the RCP average. Averaging samples collected with different methods makes no mathematical or statistical sense.
The overall dynamics are absolutely bizarre this year.
Comparisons to 2004 do matter, but what we have going on is in Iowa McCain explicitly stated from day one that he opposed ethanol subsidies. It is for this reason he didn’t even campaign there in the primaries.
Despite this, he is campaigning there now, with some internal numbers suggesting it’s competitive. IOW, in a state where he explicitly took a stand the farmers would hate, he’s still competitive.
Look, people, west of the Mississippi River the states in flux are CO, IA, NM and NV. Nothing else. That’s a total of 26 EVs. All were red in 2004. Bush won by 16 EVs.
So McCain has to hold any losses among those 4 to under 17 EVs. CO(9), IA(7), NM(5), NV(5). In other words McCain has to win any 2 of the 4. If he maintins all else red in the east, he wins.
Everything else is contortion to make up for losing something in the east or losing 3 of those 4 in the west.
Well why don't you look up the facts before you you spew stupidity. I mean just Wikipedia the guy , its real easy. Charlie Black advised GW in 2000 and 2004 and worked on Ronald Reagan's 1980 WINNING campaign. Which by some politicos is the template for beating a liberal Democrat with a solid conservative message. Comparing him to Bob Shrum is like comparing your dumb quotes to let's say Albert Einstein's Theory of Relativity. Charlie Black is solid a Reagan-ite, something we sorely need, he's one of the best in the business right up there with Rove.
2004 plus 2? I will take it. Lets keep up the hard work I saw some great volunteers on Rt 1 in Port Orange today! Everyone was waving and honking them!
My impression is that the actual internal polling has to be as accurate as possible, you don't want false information to mislead you.
My other impression is that spin about internal polls given to the press is leaked for a purpose. In this case to undermine the MSM's spin that this election is over, so that McCain supporters get out to the polls on Tuesday.
My feeling is that if McCain actually does lose any two of the following states...
Florida, Virginia, North Carolina
...we’re in for one hell of a bad evening.
Thats the problem, the socialist have at least 10 votes per Dem voter!
Hey, McCain team, cut an ad about Barry bankrupting the coal industry, and have it run nonstop in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
I actually like being underestimated and I think that there has been a TON of that being done by the lame stream media and Senator Government.
The left KNOWS that we are fired UP all across this country and has been trying their level best to depress that enthusiasm. What the press and the democRATs fail to realize is that every time they try to kill our spirit it only gets us MORE fired up!!
To the point that I am GIDDY with anticipation for NOV 4th!!!
Northeast and Northwest Philadelphia could go to McCain (at least it will not be a blowout for Obama). North Philadelphia will be all Obama. Central Philadelphia will be about 50-50. And there are enough Italians left in South Philly that Obama won’t win more than 80% of the vote there. Camden, New Jersey is the new extension of the Philadelphia slums, and New Jersey is going for Obama, anyways. Obama will be giving out street money in Philadelphia, almost for sure.
I watched Meet The Press this morning. To demonstrate why McCain is going for Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, NBC’s map guy put North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana in the middle (as if any of those states are grey or pink) along with Ohio, Nevada, Florida, etc. Apparently light Blue states VIRGINIA, Colorado, and New Mexico weren’t even in play according to this pundit. This was after they showed a poll of McCain within 2 in VA with about 6% undecided
Joe the Plumber is stronger than Brunner. McCain will win Ohio.
Or, if he somehow manages to take Pennsylvania, he could lose all four of those and still win.
And we have ethanol from corn becoming less and less of an issue in Iowa and elsewhere, as most now understand that ethanol can't come from food and that any ethanol must come from products that people don't count on for food. The grudge against McCain is losing its foundation.
I expect a knock at my door in 3... 2... 1...
This is what CNN said about internal polling for Kerry on Oct. 22, 2004:
“Democrats disagree, saying their internal polls show them running ahead in Florida, Wisconsin and New Mexico, where CNN believes Bush is ahead.
“There are polls out there that have us even. There are polls that have us ahead, and there are polls that have us behind,” said Mark Mellman, the Kerry campaign’s chief pollster. “And the two things that all the polls agree on are that John Kerry is ahead in battleground states — and that people who have yet to make a decision are very negative about the president and very negative about the current direction of the country.”
That said, I think you are onto something that internal polling leaked to the press can be intentionally twisted.
in 2004, Kerry said hey I am leading in the battleground states, but frankly, this GOP polling seems much more upbeat than the Kerry polling in 2004, which would lead me to believe maybe the RNC and McCain camp isn’t spinning the numbers too much. Maybe they really ARE confident of a win here.
At least that’s my hope. I don’t want to hear good internal polling like Kerry only to lose. :)
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Not good when trying to gauge the last-minute movements.
-PJ
Agreed. I can recall Charlie Black saying, with all sincerity, 2 days before the ‘92 vote that Bush 41 would win.
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