Posted on 11/04/2008 1:31:19 PM PST by LS
9) Franklin County, Ohio: Ohio’s second-largest population hub after Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County, Columbus’ Franklin County is trending increasingly Democratic. Since Cincinnati’s Hamilton County is no longer a reliable Republican bulwark, a big Obama win here would go a long way toward sinking McCain’s chances in the state.
10) Butler County, Ohio: Cincinnati’s suburban Butler County was a key part of the exurban and micropolitan firewall that enabled Bush to carry Ohio in 2004. The 54,000-vote margin it delivered to Bush was his largest in any county in the state.
11) Mahoning County, Ohio: As a vote source, Youngstown’s Mahoning County pales next to Cuyahoga County, Franklin County, Dayton’s Montgomery County, Akron’s Summit County or Toledo’s Lucas County. But the results here will be revealing because if Obama is running below 60 percent in this industrial area, that’s a bad sign for him — and it probably signals he’s struggling in western Pennsylvania, too
What few if any of the pundits see is something that is very apparent if one bothers to go to rural Ohio counties. Not only are the Republicans in those counties motivated to vote for McCain. Tons of white working class Democrats are voting for McCain too. I have never in my lifetime heard of more life long white working class democrats saying they are voting for a Republican. It is not that they are for McCain.. It is they will do anything including (GASP) vote for a Republican to keep Obama from being elected.
Take Franklin county. Kerry won it in 2004. But Bush's margin in 5 northwestern Ohio counties wiped that margin out.
There are 88 Ohio counties. And perhaps 16 or 17 of them can be considered Democrat counties. But that leaves 70 or so that are Republican counties. They are smaller, but there are over 3 times as many of them.
Take the Bellwether Town of Ohio, Chillicothe. That is my home town. The breakdown of Blacks, whites. wealthy to middle class to poor. By every category of voters Chillicothe is an image of the entire state. There is a factor that you reduce the Republican vote and increase the Democratic vote in Chillicothe and you have the Ohio returns within a fraction of a percent.
It went for Bush in 2004. Kerry got 44 percent of the Ross County vote. But Obama will not come close to 44 percent this year. Why? white working class Democrats are voting for McCain. The more the media painted Obama as a sure winner the more the white working class Democrats in Ross County have held their noses and voted for McCain.
Last week I talked to a cousin. He is active in the Democratic Party, and he had been supervising the precinct workers who were canvasing Registered Democrats in Ross County. For the first time in his memory, and he is 63 years old, over 20 percent of Registered Democrats were telling canvassers they were going to either not vote or were going to vote for McCain.
Oh and as to my Democratic Cousin? I asked him if he voted for Obama. His reply was "NO F**KING Way!!!" I don't think he or his people were working to get out the vote for Obama today.
The local party decided to ask all of them to vote. Even the Democrats who were going to vote for McCain but to plead with them to vote for all the rest of the Democrats on the ticket. They were concerned about losing state and federal congressional races if enough Democrats did not vote at all.
This is not in the news. It has not been a big story, but Hillary won the Democratic primary in Ross county by about 4 to 1. Obama barely got more than the Black vote. That was White Working Class Democrats sending a message to the party. DON'T nominate Obama. No one listened.
There may be a lot of Democrat leaders listening after the votes are counted.
Can a huge Black and leftist turn out in big cities overcome the Republicans and their White Working Class allies.
We shall soon know. But don't bet the farm on it.
So while they will try to claim "angry white guy," it will be a tough case to make if O doesn't =Algore.
Amen to your post!
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Honestly, it’s not optimism. I’d tell you if the numbers were working against us. It’s numbers.
“Its 5 pm eastern and there have been no exit poll releases, leaked or otherwise.
That is a very good sign to me. Had they had Lord Barak the Most Merciful leading they would have leaked them out all over the place.”
Excellent post, and shrewd observation. This deserves its own thread if a FReeper hasn’t picked it up in the news already.
Thanks LS!
I would say it’s premature to “call” Ohio for McCain
_________________
HA! If the MSM can spin, so can we, so I’m calling it now:
MCAAIN WINS OHIO IN A BLOODBATH, ALL RUST BELT STATES TO FOLLOW!!!!!
Ol’ Turd In The Punchbowl seems awfully invested in a McCain defeat.
Great sign!
Since the law is broken and no one implements it ...You have to do something and don’t let the scums win.
You must do something in order to fix the problem...Standing at the door of the FEC’s office,upseting your Representative in Congress...
Keeping fingers crossed here. Thanks for the reports from the field.
Right on...Right on...Right on...!
This former Buckeye from the county north of Dayton is very proud of her home State right now! You guys are going to bring in a huge victory as Republicans turn out in big numbers. Hope the huge numbers bring along a new Attorney General!
Sure hope you’re right.
Guess I picked the wrong year to quit huffing gold paint.
If you read the long, detailed “Obama Is Toast” article, you would see that the writer compared Palin to Harry Truman, who was ridiculed in campaigning in Rural Areas.
He had a map that plotted where all of the candidated campaigned, Palin was all over the rural areas, she’s bringing those people out of the woodwork.
The Palin Landslide of 2008 is underway!!
Yes, if the early exit polls were showing any big Obamanation lead we can be sure they would be plastered all over the media by now. The lack of info so far suggests at least a cliffhanger if not an advantage to McCain/Palin......
Larry....you are making me one happy girl. I cannot wait....this is so exciting!!!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.