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Sarah Palin saved GOP from landslide defeat
The Hill ^ | November 11, 2008 | Dick Morris

Posted on 11/12/2008 6:31:58 AM PST by reaganaut1

As Richard Nixon wrote, “history is written by liberals,” but the story of the 2008 campaign is too important to cede to them the analysis of what happened. A close analysis of the returns indicates several key realities:

a) Sarah Palin made a vast difference in McCain’s favor. Compared to 2004, McCain lost 11 points among white men, according to the Fox News exit poll, but only four points among white women. Obama’s underperformance among white women, evident throughout the fall, may be chalked up, in large part, to the influence of Sarah Palin. She provided a rallying point for women who saw their political agenda in terms larger than abortion. She addressed the question of what it is like to be a working mother in today’s economy and society and resonated with tens of millions of white women who have not responded to the more traditional, and liberal, advocates for their gender.

b) Turnout did not increase substantially. Despite predictions (by me and others) of a vastly greater voter turnout, it didn’t happen. About 127 million people voted in 2008, compared to 122 million in 2004. By contrast, turnout rose by almost 20 million between 2000 and 2004. The emphasis on early voting and the heavy participation in primaries indicated the likelihood of a huge increase in turnout, but, on Election Day, the turnout was modest.

c) The black vote made a huge difference; but young people did not. Obama, as expected, generated a big increase in African-American voter turnout. Fox News’s exit polls estimate that blacks constituted 13 percent of the turnout in 2008, compared with 11 percent in 2004 and 10 percent in 2000. But voters under 30 years of age were still the same 11 percent of the vote that they were in 2004.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; bho2008; dickmorris; landslide; mccain; sarahpalin
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To: Maceman

I’ve been asking some of my liberal friends about that, why Palin got such incredible visceral personal hatred from the left this election. All they do is whine “well, she called us anti-American” and “Barack got insulted too, they called him Hussein!”. Oh really? People all over the blogosphere were calling Sarah Palin a c-—...funny, I never saw Obama referred to with ANY sexual or racist slur, not once. I can’t make them see that Palin caught more sheer hell this campaign than any other candidate I can remember since 1984, and can’t understand how Palin would cause people who otherwise liked McCain to vote against him.

}:-)4


41 posted on 11/12/2008 7:04:53 AM PST by Moose4 (Hey RNC. Don't move toward the middle. MOVE THE MIDDLE TOWARD YOU.)
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To: SmokingJoe
Massachusetts doesn't represent the rest of the country.

Apparently, it does now. May God help us all.

42 posted on 11/12/2008 7:08:33 AM PST by Maceman (If you're not getting a tax cut, you're getting a pay cut.)
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To: reaganaut1

“Compared to 2004, McCain lost 11 points among white men,”

Remember that when we’re accused of being racist.


43 posted on 11/12/2008 7:09:51 AM PST by popdonnelly (Don't lose sight of your conservative principles.)
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To: steve-b
Obviously not, since she did four percent worse than Dick Cheney at attracting the “women's vote”. “

How do you come by that one?
McCain was already losing the “woman's vote” by a big margin BEFORE Gov Paling was even nominated.
McCain shot ahead by 4% at RCP after Gov Paalin energized the base with her rousing RNC speech. McCain's speech was a snoozefest.
McCain sank after his notorious vote for that $700 billion bailout vote, and his speech blaming the Republican appointed Chairman of the SEC instead of blaming the Dims and Barney Frank the real culprits). He never recovered. No one can save a guy that is determined to lose like McCain was.

44 posted on 11/12/2008 7:09:53 AM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: RegulatorCountry

“I just wonder about vote fraud, and by that I don’t mean just inflated numbers on the Dem side. I wonder about Republican votes being “lost,” or otherwise not counted. The intensity of the Republican voters I know was higher than 2004, or even 2000. It doesn’t add up, for me at least.”

I think Republican votes were counted. I also believe many Republicans voted third party or none of the above, voted for Obama to teach the RNC a lesson, and many stayed home. Trouble is we all will suffer greatly for those voting decisions which helped Obama win the White House.


45 posted on 11/12/2008 7:10:00 AM PST by seekthetruth
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To: Maceman

“Apparently, it does now”

If it did, Utah and Oklahoma would have voted for Hussein. They didn’t. They voted overwhelmingly for McCain.


46 posted on 11/12/2008 7:11:51 AM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: reaganaut1

Had it not been for Palin on the ticket, McCain would have had a humiliating defeat. He was running behind when he nominated her.

Many, including me, thought he would maverick for Lieberman — and that would have resulted in absolute defeat. But some of his handlers were knowledgeable enough to know that that choice would be certain defeat.

The main problem in having Palin on the ticket was that she turned out to be a bigger draw and more popular than the top of the ticket was That grated on McCain’s ego. She drew tens-of-thousands; he drew a few hundred. Instead of unleashing her, the handlers (by instruction from the top?) kept her from many TV and media interviews.

==

Well, his O-ness has been president-elect for a week and the DOW has dropped again today. So far, it is down about 1,000 points since the election.

DOW 8514 at -174 and fluctuating.


47 posted on 11/12/2008 7:14:30 AM PST by TomGuy
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To: SmokingJoe
How do you come by that one?

It's right in the article -- the 2008 share of the "women's vote" dropped off 4% from the 2004 share of the "women's vote".

48 posted on 11/12/2008 7:14:38 AM PST by steve-b (Intelligent design is to evolutionary biology what socialism is to free-market economics.)
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To: Moose4

My sample is pretty small, but I noticed a pattern among my female friends: Fat women conservatives voted against Sarah. Perhaps she was just too attractive for them to feel anything but jealousy. Either that or those fat women spent too much time watching MSM TV and believed the anti-Sarah propaganda. Its a shame if that is the case. What can one do about envious women?


49 posted on 11/12/2008 7:15:48 AM PST by helpfulresearcher (Bipartisanship is just a PC word for Collaborating With the Enemy.)
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To: steve-b
Earth to Morris: The GOP did suffer a landslide defeat!”

Exactly how do you define that?
You might want to read this:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2130715/posts

50 posted on 11/12/2008 7:17:29 AM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: reaganaut1
But voters under 30 years of age were still the same 11 percent of the vote that they were in 2004.

So, the much vaunted Obama youth vote never really materialized, did it :)
51 posted on 11/12/2008 7:18:30 AM PST by reagan_fanatic (Obama, you are NOT my President!)
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To: reaganaut1
We need a new Rule.

If Palin is posted about. A picture is required.


52 posted on 11/12/2008 7:18:34 AM PST by downwdims (If Peace is the answer it must be a stupid question)
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To: ccmay

I wondered what that was!


53 posted on 11/12/2008 7:19:00 AM PST by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: SmokingJoe
If it did, Utah and Oklahoma would have voted for Hussein. They didn’t. They voted overwhelmingly for McCain.

So how's that President McCain thing workin' out for us?

54 posted on 11/12/2008 7:19:15 AM PST by Maceman (If you're not getting a tax cut, you're getting a pay cut.)
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To: ken21

Amen


55 posted on 11/12/2008 7:20:17 AM PST by Theophilus (Abortion: #1 National Security Issue, #1 Economic Issue, #1 Moral Issue)
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To: downwdims

56 posted on 11/12/2008 7:21:22 AM PST by downwdims (If Peace is the answer it must be a stupid question)
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To: SmokingJoe

McCain never really found a message.

During the primaries/debates his only message was that he support the surge.

By the general election, Iraq was basically off the table. McCain didn’t have much else to run on.

And the boondoggle bailbout didn’t help. Especially after just weeks before, McCain saying he didn’t know much about economics. And then he helped construct and vote for the $700 Billion plus the additional $150 Billion or so pork.

Afterward, he had the nerve to continue to say that he, as president, would veto any pork bills.

His numbers went down hill after that ‘stunt’ of suspending his campaign and voting for that boondoggle and its pork.


57 posted on 11/12/2008 7:21:30 AM PST by TomGuy
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To: anniegetyourgun
I fear she has been finished off.

Only in your mind.

58 posted on 11/12/2008 7:21:54 AM PST by Theophilus (Abortion: #1 National Security Issue, #1 Economic Issue, #1 Moral Issue)
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To: helpfulresearcher
...I noticed a pattern among my female friends: Fat women conservatives voted against Sarah. Perhaps she was just too attractive for them to feel anything but jealousy.

I hadn't thought of that before, but it does make sense.

What can one do about envious women?

They are a curse, aren't they? Insecure people in general tend to be bitter and underhanded and are more destructive than constructive.

59 posted on 11/12/2008 7:23:31 AM PST by Allegra
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To: steve-b
It's right in the article — the 2008 share of the “women's vote” dropped off 4% from the 2004 share of the “women's vote””

You are still missing the point.
McCain had a low share of the women's vote in polls BEFORE he nominated Gov Palin.
Gov Plain pushed his overall poll numbers UP above Hussein's, only for McCain ti drive his numbers back down again, with his erractoc performance when the markets crashed.

60 posted on 11/12/2008 7:24:30 AM PST by SmokingJoe
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