I would think a runoff would favor Chambliss as there would no Obamamania to drive the Dem vote.
In some areas it’s not so much that Martin ran well, it’s that the Libertarian candidate ran better than usual. In Gwinnett County, one of the big suburban counties outside Atlanta, Saxby got 53%, Martin 43%, Buckley 4%. In Cobb County, another big suburban county, it was pretty much the same, with Martin just one point lower. In many northern GA counties, Saxby scored in the 60-70% range, Martin 20%-30%, and Buckley anywhere from the low to high single digits. Martin’s vote actually doesn’t look much different from Max Cleland’s losing 46% six years ago, it’s just that Saxby’s seeing a cut from his column due to Buckley, plus the extra black turnout has dampened the GOP margins in the Atlanta metro area.
Saxby may be in good shape even if he only picks up a small portion of the Buckley vote.