Posted on 01/01/2009 7:37:48 AM PST by Fennie
DEBKAfile's military sources report that Hamas does not propose to put its entire 15,000-strong army in harm's way against the expected Israeli military invasion. It will confine its resistance to small pockets and sabotage and let Israel troops occupy most of Gaza Strip territory.
Assuming the incoming force will stop short of conquering Gaza City and put it to siege, Hamas planners believe this siege force will be Israel's Achilles heel. They propose to wear it down over weeks by nocturnal guerilla forays from within Gaza City and force an inconclusive end to the conflict.
(Excerpt) Read more at debka.com ...
I imagine that Israel could very easily whack any rats that try to maneuver under the cover of darkness.
In fact, the Iraq insurgency has taught us many valuable lessons about urban guerilla warfare, and I am certain that Israel has paid very close attention to those “teaching moments.”
Israel already controls almost all access to Gaza, and can tighten that still more as soon as the IDF enters the territory. They need to make their own video journal of their actions while making certain that they accomplish ALL of their military objectives. The journal should include multiple formats, including the usual forms promulgated by the usual propagandists.
Then they need to scrub the journals of prejudicial scenes and release them to the public, partly as “captured” reporting.
A half dozen years ago, I would have agreed with you. But there have been a few changes since then.
First, Arafat is dead. Everyone knows that he had 97% of what he wanted in his mitts at the Camp David peace summit, and that wasn't good enough for him. He was also an old-line fighter against Israel from way back when, and the numerous failed attempts of Israel to kill him just solidified his hate.
Second, there is the rise of Mahmoud Abbas. Yes, he was (and may still be) a Holocaust denier, but you pretty much have to be one to become a leader of Palestinians. He is noted for being one of the first of the Pali leaders to try to get the PLO to recognize Israel. His role in the fairly successful Oslo peace agreements is acknowledged. He doesn't have the same history of animosity with Israel that Arafat did.
Third, Abbas got his hiney kicked by Hamas just a year and a half ago, and he's still smarting from it. The Hamas-Fatah split was a physical one as well as an ideological one, drawing Fatah over to the West Bank, and consolidating Hamas in Gaza. Since Abbas took over the more moderate factions in the West Bank, he's tried to 'play nice' while still mouthing the words that Palestinians need to hear come out of the mouth of a putative leader.
Fourth, Israel and Abbas know that the world will pay for peace. They've seen it with Egypt and Jordan, and they've seen both the US and the EU turn on the money spigot when Fatah made the break with Hamas. That source of funding will gush forward mightily if a two-state treaty can be reached. The world will be happy to pay for it in the discount achieved by the reduced price of oil.
Fifth, there is a timing issue. Not only is Barack Obama going to take over in the US, but there is an Israeli election coming up in February. The current Israeli government fears losing power, and I believe has made a pact with Abbas to destroy Hamas leadership in Gaza so that Fatah can assume control. They pretty much have only now to take advantage of this, while world attention is focused on the Christmas-New Year's holiday season, coverage of the bombing in Gaza is muted.
Timing also works in another way, as well. If Israel can remove Hamas, and install Fatah in power in Gaza, Barry can be drafted into riding into the rescue, and broker the two-state treaty. He gets his first foreign policy success, and will gladly shovel US dollars towards it, especially if US construction companies can do the rebuilding. They know that he can be counted on to propel the Obamessiah myth that his followers elected him on. An Israeli-Palistinian peace deal in the first months of the new Administration is irresistible to both him and Hillary.
Gazans see how well the West Bank has done since the split, and how poorly they've done. The flow of international money to pay them not to fight will be a powerful incentive to just give it up, and the world will turn a blind eye to whatever Abbas and Fatah have to do to put down radical Islammunist resistance. Israel knows that it cannot govern Gaza without totally eliminating the population currently there, so it will accept the appointment of Fatah as the kindergarten cop.
Yeah, I would like to see them all wiped out, as well, but that's not going to happen. Short of an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel, where Israel responds with massive retaliation, simultaneously nuking every major Islamic city, that's not in the cards. And it means mutually assured destruction, something that the US and the Soviets managed to avoid, because it was so terrible.
The current Israeli government has one last shot at a non-MAD scenario, if they're wrong, then Likud takes over and finishes the job.
I think that the IDF should sweep Gaza methodically, avoiding Gaza City until Hamas is concentrated there. They should announce the names of all the districts and towns being cleared and omit mentioning Gaza City until Hamas is all there or fled from Gaza altogether. Then Gaza City should be leveled by the the IAF and smoothed over by bulldozers. For a nice finishing touch, a few hundred tons of salt cold be sprinkled over the location.
There is no reason to think of it as suicidal. Olmert is running this operation, the same Olmert who wants to re-establish the 1947 boundaries as a proper position from which to negotiate with the A-Rabs.
...just like how Saddam Hussein “defeated” us at the Mother of All Battles in 1991?
History records that most “Last Stands” didn’t go too well for the last standers.
Only thing that can stop Israel from taking out hamas is Israel and their resolve.
Seems they haven’t had too much resolve for the last decade or so. Hope they’ve found it again.
A nice conclusion to this affair would be a nice low yield cobalt bomb on Gaza City where no one is killed but the entire city structure is blown away. Oh wait, the UN would then send housing to house the terrorists and make the USA pay for it. Oh well, a nice low yield neutron bomb then, all the Hamas thugs disappear and the city stays!
I like the sound of “last stand”...does that mean they promise to go away after they loose?
Great plan. How’s that working out for you there Mohammed?
Just handle the press the same way as Hizbollah did in the Lebanon debacle.
IE - they must have an armed ‘minder’ with them at all times... and they can only go where they are directed. Furthermore, all pictures and press must be pre-screened before release.
Then place signs in front of some rubble with words like ‘Baby milk/munitions factory’. The western press will lap that up like the dogs they are.
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