Mexican instability needs close scrutiny

Military planners are paid to consider worst-case scenarios. A report issued last year by the U.S. Joint Forces Command did just that.

The latest Joint Operative Environment report, a planning document to assess national security threats, said Mexico — along with Pakistan — bears consideration for rapid and sudden collapse. The reason: “The government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels.”

For residents of South Texas and the border region, this assault is well understood. Drug battles in Mexico often spill over to this side of the Rio Grande. And the threat of kidnappings and violence has dried up a traditionally healthy flow of Texans who used to regularly cross the border for business, family and pleasure.

Nevertheless, the JOE assessment was shocking. Could Mexico — America's largest neighbor, its third largest trading partner and third largest supplier of oil — really be ripe for collapse? That's the worst-case scenario military planners want our leaders to consider.

An introductory note to the Joint Operating Environment report states that it is speculative in nature, not predictive. Its purpose is to assess national security in such a way that military leaders aren't surprised by threats that are unforeseen or poorly understood.

The increasing levels of violence and lawlessness in Mexico can't be ignored. Fortunately, cooperative efforts such as the $1.4 billion Merida Initiative are a positive legacy of the Bush administration. With U.S. support, Mexican President Felipe Calderón is bravely prosecuting a war against the drug syndicates.

“Mexico total area = 1,923,040 Sq km.” (posted upthread),,,
~~~
When the time comes, and I’m more inclined then ever to believe it will come, our military will occupy Mexico, the entire country will be declared US territory, and 5,000 US Marshals will be sent to bring peace much as they did in our western territories. Once peace, order and justice is assured, allow the territories to enter the Union as states upon Congressional approval of each state constitution.
~~~
Very Baaad Idea,,,

There was over 5,000 dead in the border cities (’08),,,

The dope is grown in South America,,,

Kill it there...

“The dope is grown in South America,,,

Kill it there...”

What dope is grown in South America? With the exception of cocaine, Mexicans produce most of the drugs they sell. According to the ONDCP Mexican drug trafficking organizations gross about $13.8 billion a year selling drugs up here in the U.S. About $8.6 billion of that comes from marijuana. That's about 62% of their gross proceeds. Americans consume more marijuana than all other illegal drugs combined. Cocaine is the second most popular drug though. Mexicans have taken control of most cocaine distribution in the U.S. The ONDCP estimates that these Mexican drug traffickers gross about $3.9 billion a year from cocaine, around 28% of their gross receipts. They do have to purchase and smuggle it from South America before they can smuggle it into the U.S. though. They don't produce it like they produce marijuana so marijuana accounts for a much greater percentage of their actual net profits than 62%. They're also selling Americans about $400 million worth of heroin and a billion worth of meth that is mostly all produced in Mexico. The vast majority of the drugs they produce are produced in Mexico, and increasingly they're producing drugs on our own soil.

And as for stopping the drugs in South America, we've been trying to do that for decades. We have a friendly cooperative relationship with the Colombian government now and have been working with them to stamp out cocaine for quite some time now, but of course the Colombians are supplying us more cocaine than ever. The current cartels there are just a lot more low key and less openly violent, especially toward the government than old Pablo Escobar was before we helped kill him. We can help the Mexican government deal with some of the thugs attacking their government, but it's pretty naive to think we'll ever stop the flow of drugs. There is just too much money to be made for that to stop.

"Could you post a link to that site ?"

I found a link to an article that came out on this a while back. I imagine the ONDCP has something on their website too. Back in 1983 Colombians were supplying us a lot of marijuana in addition to the cocaine. They were much more in control of cocaine distribution within the the U.S. back then at the wholesale level. What has happened since then is that the Colombians have allowed the Mexicans to take over distribution for the most part and they've pretty much given up on selling marijuana here. The Mexicans are closer and better set up for distribution so it just makes more economic sense for Mexicans to supply the marijuana than to smuggle it all the way from Colombia and try to get it distributed without the built in distribution networks the Mexicans already have. Mexican pot has improved in quality since the early eighties and it is dirt cheap, especially near the border. It tends to get more expensive the farther it gets from the border.

I'm a good fifteen hour drive from the border but we've had such an influx in our Hispanic population over the last ten or fifteen years and I think that has driven the price of pot way down here too. Anytime you have thousands of Mexicans in an area some of those people are going to be related to or otherwise connected with people involved in the drug trade and they're going to be able to help bring large amounts in and pretty soon that will drive prices down. It's cheaper here than it was when you were on jury duty in 1983 and it's more potent (it's still weak compared to most U.S. grown pot, especially that grown indoors).

I work as a lawyer in a county with an interstate highway running through it and I've handled thousands of pounds worth of these pot mule cases where people are caught smuggling it in their vehicles and in tractor trailer loads. So, I read a lot about this stuff and I hear things from clients and those in the DEA and local law enforcement that I deal with. I think the government believes the Mexicans are supplying us something like 8 or 9 thousand metric tons of pot produced in Mexico every year and they're also growing more and more here in the U.S. The government estimates that the total supply in this country in a given year is somewhere between 12,000 and 25,000 metric tons. There are about 2,205 pounds in a metric ton, by the way. If memory serves me correctly the government estimates that about 500 metric tons or so is coming in from Canada and much less than that is coming in from other sources so Mexicans are supplying either most or at least a huge portion of the pot being consumed in this country. Even if the total supply is closer to the top end of the government estimate Mexicans may be supplying most of the pot here because they are involved with more and more of the large outdoor grows here and from articles I've read on indoor grow busts it looks like they are getting in on that game more and more as well.

Here's the link to that article I mentioned on what drugs are being supplied by Mexican organized crime:

http://pushingback.com/blogs/pushing_back/archive/2008/02/25/40553.aspx

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.