Anything else is conjecture or grasping.
You said — It’s as plausible that Oswald was shooting at Connoly rather than JFK, but the best evidence points to a crackpot named Oswald, shooting JFK to impress a woman.
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I don’t think it’s plausible that Oswald was shooting at either. It appears to be someone else, along with two other shooters from the front of the motorcade...