Posted on 04/26/2009 9:04:59 AM PDT by janetjanet998
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...KS...OK...NW TX
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 261554Z - 261700Z
SEE GRAPHIC FOR MDT-HIGH RISK LINES EXPECTED FOR 1630Z SWODY1 UPDATE.
HIGH RISK UPGRADE WILL INCLUDE SCNTRL KS AND NWRN/NCNTRL-WCNTRL OK WITH A MDT RISK SPANNING FROM NWRN TX/ERN TX PNHDL ENEWD INTO CNTRL OK AND CNTRL/ERN KS.
IMPRESSIVE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER LATER THIS AFTN FOR A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WAVES OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
BRIEF THOUGHTS /DETAILS FORTHCOMING IN SWODY1 UPDATE/...
MORNING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OUT OF ACCAS FIELD WILL TRANSLATE NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN KS AND NWRN OK THROUGH EARLY AFTN. PORTIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SFC-BASED AS POCKETS OF HEATING LOCALLY ERODE CINH. ANOTHER WAVE OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO FORM UPSTREAM ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT IN ERN TX PNHDL/NWRN TX LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE...TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS THE MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS.
PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE BELOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARIES AND PERSISTENT RICH MOISTURE INFLUX WILL FAVOR LONG-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN BACKED IN A CORRIDOR FROM NWRN TX INTO SCNTRL KS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW OVER OK PNHDL/SWRN KS...BOOSTING SRH AND RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
We had a very rare high risk area over us a couple of weeks ago. (far north GA) Needless to say, I did not relish the thought. I moved here from Oklahoma, and have had enough already to last me. But, these little mountains weakened and broke it up for us. Thanks to God for building them.
Sorry I missed your message until this afternoon! It's sunny, hot, and breezy today, with showers or thunderstorms moving through tonight and tomorrow morning. We are not expecting severe weather.
I hope your boy has a safe trip.
He’s on the road now driving alone towards Ohio. His first time driving a 24 foot truck. Will be staying in Ohio for 2 days. Won’t rest till he gets home. I pray all will be well. Thank you!
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