The Four Iran Scenarios and "Basiji Hunting"

The Washington Note ^ | Friday, Jun 19 2009, 2:06PM | Steve Clemons

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

One of my colleagues at the New America Foundation's Global Strategic Finance Initiative, Douglas Rediker, received this note from a friend abroad. It's illuminating as to how a well-connected Iranian internationalist who has been in Tehran during much of the post-election unrest sees matters now. To protect Rediker's source, I can't make references about where he is today.

The email:

As of yesterday the options facing the country were well summarised by Simon Tisdall and Ellie Rose in The Guardian:

1 - Happy ending

To widespread surprise, the hardline Guardian Council conducts a thorough recount of votes, as ordered by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and decides, amid much embarrassment, that there should be a new election. Mir Hossein Mousavi wins. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accepts defeat. Pro-democracy demonstrators celebrate triumph of "green revolution". New government responds positively to US invitation to "unclench fist" and open talks on nuclear issue.

2 - Damp squib

The partial recount ordered by the Supreme Leader concludes Ahmadinejad won a clear victory, although by a narrower margin. Despite lingering suspicions of foul play, the opposition is forced to accept the verdict amid a continuing nationwide crackdown on dissent and warnings that further disorder will be dealt with harshly. Ahmadinejad, in bad odour with the Supreme Leader for provoking demonstrators, moderates his line on policy issues. Mousavi vows to fight again.

3 - Confrontation

The Guardian Council's partial vote recount and investigation into electoral fraud are rejected by the opposition. Demonstrations spread and intensify, with ever greater numbers of Iranians taking to the streets calling for the resignation of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. Security forces respond with increasing force, arresting thousands and closing down media coverage, texting networks, websites and Twitter. Purge of reformist leaders, intellectuals, students and journalists continues. Leaderless demos gradually peter out, leaving resentment. Ahmadinejad steps up anti-western rhetoric. Resumed protests at a later date considered highly likely.

4 - A second revolution

An insider cabal of senior clerical and establishment conservatives challenges Khamenei and forces his resignation after a vote in the Assembly of Experts. Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani is elected in his stead and orders an investigation into the actions of Ahmadinejad and other senior members of the regime. Hardliners rally round the president while reformists demand new elections. Amid growing instability, Iran's unique Islamic/secular system of governance appears in danger of collapse".

As of Mr. Khameneni's speech today it seems that (1) above is no longer an option. For everything that Mousavi has publically announced option (2) also seems unlikely.

Unfortunately for everything I know, it now seems its either (3) or (4).

By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things ... as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

This is an Excerpt

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

fyi

[lewisglad]

I’m thinking 3, starting tomorrow with the Sea of Green march

[Repealthe17thAmendment]

Do the protestors or demonstrators have access to weapons, besides the simple, homemade kind?

And it also makes you wonder what effect the problems in Tehran will have on their ability to meddle with Iraq.

[KarlInOhio]

5. Happier ending: Khamenei and Ahmadinejad end up hanging from lamp posts.

[ScreamingFist]

By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things ... as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'. Their resolve is no less than these thugs -- they after hunting them down. They use their phones, their childhood friends, their intimate knowledge of their districts and neighbours to plan their attacks -- they're organised and they're supported by their community so they have little fear. They create the havoc they're after, ambush the thugs, use their Cocktail Molotovs, disperse and re-assemble elsewhere and then start again - and the door of every house is open to them as safe harbour -- they're community-connected.

Classic guerrilla tactics.

[counterpunch]

Unfortunately for everything I know, it now seems its either (3) or (4).

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach “Unfortunately”?
(3) and (4) are by far the best outcomes, with (4) obviously being what we are aiming for.
Still, as unpleasant as it may be if (3) is what is to come to pass, at least Ahmadinejad and the Theocracy will emerge with their credibility in tatters, to be ultimately overthrown some time later, Israel will be able to continue their mission to derail Iran’s nukes without having to adjust their calculus, and 0bama’s “outreach” as a politically viable approach will be DOA, along with his credibility in foreign policy matters.
 

[Man50D]

Twitter report

Protest Atlanta Georgia 20 June 2009: 16:00 19:00 In front of CNN HQ in Atlanta 192 Marietta St NW Atlanta, GA

[Charlespg]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FP-45_Liberator

[Man50D]

Twitter report

: ALL IRANIANS AND SUPPORTERS IN L.A., THERE WILL BE A PROTEST TOMORROW AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING IN WESTWOOD!

[BeerLover NYC]

Sea of Green...and they’re not celebrating St. Patrick’s Day.

[BenLurkin]

How many votes did the Supreme Leader get?

[BeerLover NYC]

This sounds wonderful. Basiji Hunting! Maybe they can make it into a video game.

[lewisglad]

I hope they are armed tomorrow...

[BeerLover NYC]

Supreme Leader in Iran, Dear leader in N. Korea what title should we give President Zero?

[Bon mots]

This sounds wonderful. Basiji Hunting! Maybe they can make it into a video game.

They need rifles.

[BeerLover NYC]

Hey in the video game we can let the Moussavi people have nukes!

[G8 Diplomat]

Basiji Hunting! Maybe they can make it into a video game.

Would that be for the BaWiiji gaming system?

[G8 Diplomat]

what title should we give President Zero?

Caliph Hussein?

[BeerLover NYC]

Dunno? Maybe?