Iran's Regime Will Never Be the Same

Wall Street Journal ^ | June 23, 2009 | EDWARD N. LUTTWAK

[La Lydia]

At this point, only the short-term future of Iran's clerical regime remains in doubt. The current protests could be repressed, but the unelected institutions of priestly rule have been fatally undermined. Though each aspect of the Islamic Republic has its own dynamic, this is not a regime that can last many more years.

When it comes to repression, Iran has a spectrum of security instruments that can be used...The national police can take care of routine crowd control; riot-police units can beat some demonstrators in order to discourage others; the much more brutal, underclass Basij militiamen enjoy striking and shooting affluent Iranians; and the technical arm of the regime can block cellular service to disrupt demonstrations, stall Internet services.

If the protests were to seriously escalate, the Revolutionary Guard troops with their armored vehicles might also be called in, though at some risk to the regime...The alternative -- calling in the regular army -- would be much more risky since the loyalty of the generals is unknown...

What has undermined the very structure of the Islamic Republic is the fracturing of its ruling elite. It was the unity established by Ayatollah Khomeini that allowed the regime to dominate the Iranian people for almost 30 years. Now that unity has been shattered: The very people who created the institutions of priestly rule are destroying their authority...

The other key undemocratic institution of the Islamic Republic, founded in part by Messrs. Mousavi and Rafsanjani, is the 12-member Council of Guardians that can veto any laws passed by the elected parliament and any candidate for the parliament or the presidency...the Council has persistently sided with extremists and Ahmadinejad, using its veto powers aggressively. Supreme Leader Khamenei logically chose the Council to deal with the election dispute....

[La Lydia]

Every person the regime harms becomes an enemy of the regime. The mullahs are digging their own graves.

[pepsionice]

Once you’ve had a couple of dozen kids killed, and a couple hundred people disappear...then folks start to note who are the small players in events...the cops, guys in the army, minor-league political figures...and then they whack them. It may take weeks and months...but if you represent anything of authority in Iran...even the local chief of police of some small 50-man force...your future doesn’t look bright. All it takes is one weapon and a mind for revenge....then things start to crumble.

[counterpunch]

Iran's Regime Will Never Be the Same

And neither will ours.
My fellow Americans, our long national honeymoon is over.

[xkaydet65]

Thanks to the efforts of the haloed one you can expect that the regime in Iran will be worse.

[MuttTheHoople]

Look for the Retarded Mullahs to have their Fellow Traveler Barry Hussein Soetoro Obama bail them out.

[Leg Olam]

This the beginning. Things will get a lot worse and then some hitherto unknown leader of the people with his or her cadre of operatives and adgendas will emerge. Things will semi quietly get organized along with logistics and strategies. Once its all in place the fate of the old regime will be sealed. Wheather they simply replace the old with a newer version of the same is up to them. Whatever happens it will be bloody and quick once the ball starts moving. Bad time to be a mullah in Tehran.

[colorado tanker]

After the last week, I’d say when the fall comes some of those mullets could be in for the Ceausescu treatment.

[Islaminaction]

This does not mean that they will lose power. Oppressive regimes that hurt their own people exist plenty of places.
China is one of them. If the people do not have the arms to fight back, not much can be done.

[Islaminaction]

How come this has not happened in a country like China or other oppressive regimes that kill their own people?

[dfwgator]

After the last week, I’d say when the fall comes some of those mullets could be in for the Ceausescu treatment.

Today it's a lot like it was in Timisoara in the days before Ceausescu's downfall. Perhaps now we could see some defections starting amongst the armed forces, just as in Romania.

[colorado tanker]

After what they did this week, the Mullah's government has no credibility with the people. That may well cause some in the leadership or in the military to consider options that might allow them some longer term viability than what now is a naked dictatorship.

[arthurus]

Different histories.

[arthurus]

I wonder if the next place we send troops into harm’s way might be iIran to bring order to the country and to prop up the Mullahs.