Posted on 07/09/2009 12:22:46 PM PDT by bmweezer
We've presented each of our Senate projections for 2010 (available here, here, here, and here) and the thirty-six seats up for election next year break down as follows:
Current Breakdown: Democrats 60 (which includes 2 Independents), Republicans 40 seats
Democratic seats up: 18
Republican seats up: 18
Projections - July 9, 2009*
GOP HOLDS: 13 SEATS
DEMOCRATIC HOLDS: 12 SEATS
TOSSUPS: 11 SEATS
The tossups are as follows, whereas we include leanings for each:
Colorado (D) - Bennett (LEANING DEMOCRAT)
Connecticut (D) - Dodd (LEANING REPUBLICAN)
Delaware (D) - Kaufman (not running) (LEANING REPUBLICAN)
Illinois (D) - Burris (LEANING REPUBLICAN)
Kansas (R) - Brownback (not running) (LEANING REPUBLICAN)
Kentucky (R) - Bunning (LEANING DEMOCRAT)
Missouri (R) - Bond (not running) (LEANING DEMOCRAT)
New Hampshire (R) - Gregg (not running) (LEANING DEMOCRAT)
New York (D) - Gillibrand (LEANING DEMOCRAT)
Ohio (R) - Voinovich (not running) (LEANING DEMOCRAT)
Pennsylvania (D) - Specter (LEANING DEMOCRAT)
* since our original publication, we have moved the Deleware seat from DNC HOLD to TOSSUP.
Early Projection:
Democrats = 42 + 12 + 7 = 61
Republicans = 22 + 13 + 4 = 39
I should think that since the GOP has become second liberal party, that this is one of those yawn moments.
Lets elect conservatives. Who gives a damn if they are Republicans?
I cant see us losing Kentuckty
I think there is still alot more time between now and 2010 and the Democrats seem to crap the bed everyday. I think we will be good.
You see any conservative Democrats in the Senate?
Poll: Appointed Dem Senator Bennet Off To Shaky Start In Colorado For 2010
April 22, 2009, 12:11PM
A new survey of Colorado from Public Policy Polling (D) shows appointed Sen. Michael Bennet in a potentially tough situation going into his 2010 campaign, though he could still have some room to grow.
Bennet’s approval is at only 34%, with 41% disapproval and a high undecided number. When matched against former GOP Rep. Bob Beauprez, who was also the 2006 nominee for governor, Beauprez gets 43% to Bennet’s 42%. Bennet leads 39%-35% to Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier 39%-35%; he leads Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck 40%-34%; and he leads state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry 41%-34%.
“These numbers for Michael Bennet are not very good,” said PPP president Dean Debnam, in the polling memo. “The good news for him is that he still hasn’t had the opportunity to define himself the way he wants to the voters in a campaign, and when he has the opportunity to do that next year he may fare better than he is now.”
Colorado leaning Repub.
while i agree,i recall election night saying that about several states and being wrong much to my dismay.
Kentucky had one of the highest % for McCain i believe?
Compared to McCain?
Think before you type.
And what can you point to in my post, or in government that limits members of congress to the two big parties. Seen any Whigs in congress lately? Time was, they were one of the two big parties.
I think Spectorate is toast as well by 2010.
I hope we can get someone better than Blunt as our nominee for the Missouri Senate race next year. We need SARAH STEELMAN!!!!
I just don’t believe Blunt has what it takes to take on Robin Carnahan.
The GOP doesn’t have leadership. It’s all based on opportunism. The GOP is in a position now, they can simply sit back, the the Democrats implode, and capitalize on the failures.
These failures will cause great damage to America, and Americans, but to politicians there is no concern. The political class is the last to feel the suffering of a ruined economy.
If Colorado leans republican, why did Obama win that state? Why does that state have two democrat U.S. senators and a democrat governor? I hope that you’re correct. I lived in Littleton, for a year.
To soon to project the next election. With Unemployment continuing to rise - watch things begin to swing.
Kentucky went more for McCain than they did for Bush. I cant imagine Kentucky whites (a large majority of the state) voting for a member of the Obama Redistributionist (from rural to Eastern cities) Party. Unfathomable to me.
It’s doubtful your prognostication will hold up. The Dems in this climate of Obama incompetency are going to lose many seats in the Senate and House.
Your appointed senator is a joke and the economy is in the toilet, that’s why.
not being there i would guess the big factor is Bunning Fatigue,much as Bush Fatigue. We lost alot of votes due to that. It may be the same in Kentucky.(i personally lov his take no prisoners style in committee.)
If Bunning refuses to retire, we lose it. If he is replaced in the primary, we’ll hold it.
Just my humble opinions and semi-educated guesses on a few of these:
Colorado (D) - Bennett (LEANING DEMOCRAT). If things continue to slide nationally of 0bama, the GOP could win this one.
Connecticut (D) - Dodd (LEANING REPUBLICAN). Dodd should be toast. I know a number of people in CT., ranging from Goldwater-esque conservatives to independent moderates to left-leaning Lieberman types, and every last one of them want Dodd’s head on a pike. ACORN and other dirty tricks are the only way he can win (which are still possible), IMHO.
Illinois (D) - Burris (LEANING REPUBLICAN). Burris is damaged goods. Were I the Ill. state Democratic Party, I would try to defeat him with a challenger in the primaries.
Kansas (R) - Brownback (not running) (LEANING REPUBLICAN). My gut says this stays R, but that’s just a feeling.
Kentucky (R) - Bunning (LEANING DEMOCRAT). Surprised at this one. Has Bunning angered that many voters in Ky?
New York (D) - Gillibrand (LEANING DEMOCRAT). I really think this one will stay in D hands, whether it is Gilli or a primary challenger.
Ohio (R) - Voinovich (not running) (LEANING DEMOCRAT). I think a lot depends on the national mood. If Jennifer Brunner runs and gets the nomination, the GOP has a LOT of political ammo to use on her corrupt, election-rigging fanny.
Pennsylvania (D) - Specter (LEANING DEMOCRAT). Arlen’s going to be knocked out in the primaries. Nobody trusts a turncoat.
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