Posted on 07/18/2009 6:22:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
There will be no regime change in Iran unless (a) protests continue in the face of the recent repression and (b) the regime fractures. Today, brought evidence that both of these conditions (which are necessary but perhaps not sufficient) may be fulfilled.
First, protests broke out in Tehran. Second, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran's former president and a key figure in the regime, criticized the government and called for the release of hundreds of protesters and democracy advocates arrested in recent weeks.
As to the first development, thousands of demonstrators marched through the streets chanting against the regime. It was easily the largest protest in week. (One rather interesting chant was "Death to Russia," which is seen by Iranian dissidents as a key supporter of President Ahmadinejad).
Police officers and/or militia men used tear gas and truncheons to disperse large crowds of protesters, and there were reports of at least 15 arrests. Among them was Shadi Sadr, a lawyer and women's rights activist
As to the second development, Rafsanjani used his sermon during Friday prayer services at Tehran University to express criticism of the government. Rafsanjani did not allege that the recent elections were fraudulent, but he emphasized that many Iranians view them as such, that these concerns have not adequately been addressed (here he crticiized the powerful Guardian Council), and that, in the aftermath of the election, Iran is in "crisis."
Rafsanjani also urged Ayatollah Khamenei to be conciliatory. Specifically, he said that restrictions on the press and on free speech should be removed, and that those detained since the election should be released.
According to one report, when protesters interrupted his sermon, Rafsanjani told them, "I am saying it better than you."
It's an open secret that Rafsanjani is at odds with Khamenei. But, as I understand it, he has not before publicly criticized the regime (to which he belongs) to this extent. It also seems significant that Rafsanjani would do so during a sermon at the Friday prayer in Tehran, which (as one might imagine) is a very big deal. Khanenei is said generally to exercise tight control over what is said on these occasions. But today, he lacked that control, it would seem.
So this is story that apparently is not going away.
Bump
Wasn’t Rafsanjani, then head of the senate and rival to Ayatolla Khomani’s son, the one we traded arms with in Iran/Contra?
“So this is story that apparently is not going away.”
It does seem to be getting in the way of Michael Jackson news
I read a post on Twitter (about 4:00 AM CDT here) from Iran that stated:
“36 high rank IRI military personnel arrested last night - confirmed by trusted source Tehran”
I have been expecting something like that, but this was from an entity that I had not had exchanges with, but had seen for some time.
Today may be interesting, and dangerous for those Persians who are trying to gain their freedom.
—
From another post I learned something I did not know before, that Rafsanjani was at one point Commander-in-chief of the military—
“Rafsanjani In the last year of war w/ Iraq, Khomeini appointed him acting commander-in-chief of armed forces.”
Interesting info.
Today it’s Walter Cronkite 24/7. Even on Fox.
I think the 2 might be related.
It is clear that the Jeanie is out of the bottle and has no intentions of going back in.
Rafsanjani served as President of Iran from 1989 to 1997. In 2005 he ran for a third term in office, winning the first round of elections but ultimately losing to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the run-off round of the 2005 election. Consequently, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani represented a political opposition within the Islamic Republic.
Currently he holds the position of Chairman of the Assembly of Experts (a deliberative body of Mujtahids that is charged with electing, monitoring, and dismissing the Supreme Leader of Iran) and Chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council of Iran (an unelected administrative assembly that resolves legislative conflicts between the Majlis and the Council of Guardians).
Rafsanjani has been described as a centrist and a “pragmatic conservative” , who supports a pragmatic position domestically and a moderate position internationally, seeking to avoid conflict with the United States and the West.
The facts: Rafsanjani is pro-nuclear Iran, anti-Israel, murdering SOB
What are the ones, who haven't been arrested yet going to do? Sit around and wait to get arrested? I don't think so.
Iran is 50% ethnic Persian and 50% other ethnic minorities; Azeris, Turkmen, Arabs, Baluchis and others. Watch for one or another of these areas to rise up in revolt, then you can say the balloon has gone up. Until then, the regime is still in control.
Thanks for the background on the makeup of Iran population.
I would have thought the Persian element was larger.
The Middle East and Asia are generally divided by tribe. That is not really unnatural but the tendency may be stronger there.
I do not feel that the desire for freedom is related to ethnicity, but culture does affect it.
It is obvious listening to the Twitter chatter from there that this is a widespread commitment for gaining their freedom. I doubt it is only the Persians who feel that way.
They are both anti-American, Jew-Hating, pro-Hamas, pro-Hizbollah, Mahommedan-hegemony TYRANTS, so I don’t really care which one kills the other.
A pox on BOTH their houses.
Iran is a lost cause until they ban Islam and either kill are chase out all the Imams and Mullahs and Ayatoilets, and whatever other stinking Islamo-fascist tyrants they have.
Time to turn up the heat on Iran. They have now a permanent divide in their Government and have lost support of their people.
Rafsanjani is at odds with Mujtaba, one of Khamenei’s sons, as well. Mujtaba wants to become the next supreme leader, and Rafsanjani does not want that because Mujtaba is pro-Ahmadinejad & Rafsanjani spent big bucks to oppose Nutjob. Rafsanjani is head of the Assembly of Experts which chooses the supreme leader, and he is using his power there to try to prevent Mujtaba from ever assuming supreme leadership.
He already got the mullahs at Qom to speak out against the rigged election and violence. The regime is slowly fracturing. What a rat’s nest...literally.
Thanks for posting the truth.
Rafsanjani is just another Islamist.
Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani - one of Iran’s most important Shiite clerics, a former president, and a canny political operator - told tens of thousands gathered at Tehran University for Friday prayers that the government risked its legitimacy by ignoring popular anger over its declaration that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won reelection.
“We believe in the Islamic Republic,” Rafsanjani said. “They have to stand together. If ‘Islamic’ doesn’t exist, we will go astray. And if ‘Republic’ is not there, [our goals] won’t be achieved. Where people are not present or their vote is not considered, that government is not Islamic.”
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