Beam me to Planet Gore !
Posted on 07/21/2009 6:08:39 PM PDT by neverdem
There's no free lunch when it comes to cutting greenhouse gases
In 2006, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the California state legislature decided that each and every man, woman, and child in California should eliminate 4 tons of CO2 emissions by 2020. And so America's first mandatory cap on greenhouse gasses, the Global Warming Solutions Act(pdf), became law. The state must now reduce its emissions to below 1990 levels, a 30 percent reduction from projected business-as-usual emissions, essentially cutting the allotment of carbon dioxide equivalent from 14 tons to 10 tons per person.
Opponents of the bill worried that deep, rapid cuts in emissions would hurt the state's economy. But never fear: In 2008, the California Air Resources Board issued a study reassuring Californians that they can make money hand over fist selling each other wind turbines and electric cars. Implementation of the cap "creates more jobs and saves individual households more money than if California stood by and pursued an unacceptable course of doing nothing at all to address our unbridled reliance on fossil fuels," the study cheerfully declared. Because by 2020 the mandates will increase economic production by $27 billion, boost personal incomes by $14 billion, raise per capita incomes by $200, and produce an additional 100,000 jobs. According to the study, "the bulk of the economic benefits are the result of investments in energy efficiency that more than pay for themselves over time."
The study projects that Californians will offset higher electricity and gasoline bills by driving more fuel efficient cars, by adjusting their thermostats to 68 degrees in winter and 78 degrees in summer, and by using energy efficient appliances at home. The idea is that while electricity will cost more, Californians will do things like switching from incandescent bulbs to energy thrifty compact fluorescent bulbs to reduce their energy usage.
But are these projections accurate? The study's economic peer reviewers don't think so(pdf). For example, UCLA economist Matthew Kahn warned that the cap "is presented as a riskless 'free lunch' for Californians." He noted that California's electricity prices are projected to increase by 14 percent, yet manufacturing employment is also supposed to increase by 0.4 percent. "This is a surprising finding," writes Kahn. "The micro-econometrics literature has concluded that increased energy prices retards manufacturing employment growth." He cites studies(pdf) showing that cities with high electricity prices lose manufacturing jobs. Another peer reviewer, Harvard University economist Robert Stavins, bluntly states that the study's analysis is "systematically biased (and remarkably, internally inconsistent) in ways which lead to potentially severe underestimates of costs."
No one denies that energy prices will go up. Successful implementation of the Global Warming Solutions Act requires that 33 percent of the state's energy come from renewable sources by the 2020 deadline. Recent research finds that when states establish renewable portfolio standards for electricity, they pay on average 2 cents more(pdf) per kilowatt-hour more than states that do not have such standards. That might not sound like much, but it's an 8 percent increase. California already ranks seventh in the nation(pdf) based on how much California businesses, on average, spend for electricity. Only businesses in three very hot southern states and three very cold northern states spend more.
California gasoline taxes amount to 63.9 cents per gallon, the highest in the nation. Gasoline costs more in the Golden State than anywhere else in the lower 48 states. It is true that California is the fourth lowest state(pdf) in per capita energy consumption. While some of the lower energy usage can be attributed to higher residential energy efficiency standards, substantially higher than average residential and commercial electricity rates also depress demand. The new mandates would add to the heavy regulatory burdens under which California businesses already groan. The Small Business Survival Index ranks California 49th(pdf) among all states for business friendliness, just beating out New Jersey as the least business friendly state in the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council's annual rankings.
Yet the California Air Resources Board predicts that increasing energy prices and implementing new regulations in California will improve the state's economic outlook. A 2007 study by the Electric Power Research Institute begs to differ; the non-profit electricity industry think tank found(pdf) that "the cost of meeting the stated 2020 emission reduction goal could range from $104 billion to $367 billion of reduced consumption (discounted present value through 2050)."
Last week, the California Small Business Roundtable issued their own report, charging proponents of the 2006 global warming mandate with wild optimism about its alleged beneficial economic effects. The report notes that California's 700,000 small businesses comprise 99 percent of all employer firms, provide 52 percent of all jobs, and contribute 75 percent of gross state product. Using the California Air Resources Board's own figures, the new report finds that the annual implementation costs would likely result in a loss of $182 billion in gross state output and 1.1 million fewer jobs. The business losses would occur in part because regulations would increase costs to consumers whose discretionary incomes would be reduced by about $3,800 per year as they paid more for housing, transportation, natural gas, electricity, and food.
The California Air Resources Board issued a fanciful study finding that mandates to cut greenhouse gas emissions will cost Californians essentially nothing. This is pure California dreaming. In his stinging critique of the study, Harvard economist Stavins said that putting the world on a less carbon-intensive path will require serious policy and sacrifice. "This will not be easy, and it will not be cheap," he wrote. "Indeed it will be costly." Telling the public anything else is just climate change economic denialism.
Ronald Bailey is Reason magazine's science correspondent.
Arnold and the Democratic State Legislature. Stupidity Squared!
The way the loonies are acting, you would never know we are in “the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.” Someday, the people will wise up and start telling these loonies with their worthless colleges diplomas to just shut the hell up.
Socialist experimentation lunacy & idiocracy strikes again. If only there could be just ONE example of where socialism works, but no, it doesn’t exist. Nevertheless the liberal left-wing & eco-envrironmento-wackos force feed solutions upon America for problems that don’t exist, except in the deranged minds of these lunatics. When will enough be enough and the masses rise up in revolt to throw out every last vestige of socialism & their laws & the havoc they wreak??? I am so sick & tired of these self serving socialist bastards, including the chief usurper of them all, 0bozo.
With the growing numbers of productive people and businesses they are driving out of the state they should have no problem meeting 1990 CO2 levels.
Heck - with just a few more years of their tax-and-tax-some-more mentality they should soon be able to meet the 1890 CO2 levels.
Great pic! Terminator and Predator. Terminating our economy, and (Big Al) profiting from it.
No more bean soup, either.
I recall being at a friends house in AZ back in 1996 or so. He had just returned from a trip to the coast in CA. with all of this global warming screed. This crap has been a mantra of the left in order to kill capitalism for some time. It all comes to a head with Obama. Banks, Warming, Healthcare, Insurance. IN 6 MONTHS. Nah, no agenda here.
You think these bureaucratic elitist snobs are going to swelter in the summer with thermostats at 78? They all have the carbon footprint and emission output of 20 regular people. That will be the day they tell me I have to suffer like that knowing the way they live. There will come a point when we will have all-out class warfare if they keep this up...
Gimme a sec, I’ll run up some other state numbers.
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