Posted on 09/01/2009 9:49:33 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
The Tsunami Is Curling Over: CRE
As Kirk said to Khan after being threatened with the loss of his life and vessel, with Khan demanding the "code" to the "Genesis device":
"Here it comes."
Of course what was "coming" wasn't the code, it was incoming fire.
I have warned for more than two years that despite all the claims that "The government has this under control" that they do not - they were doing what so many people in government do - either lying outright or displaying tremendous hubris, believing that by waving their hands in the air and shouting they can overcome the math.
If you have been in this market picking up fish as the water went out, smugly congratulating yourself on your intelligence while failing to look upward, you may be about to get a really ugly surprise:
/snip
Got it? $7 trillion of exposure that had its "value" set during the era of fraudulent lending and accounting, where rents and occupancies rise to the sky, growing literally all the way to the sun. Such magical thinking - the belief that compound (exponential) earnings growth can be maintained indefinitely on a planet that is comprised of a finite landmass with finite resources is the height of stupidity.
(Excerpt) Read more at market-ticker.denninger.net ...
Ping!
I’m seeing alot, an awful lot, of vacant storefronts with FOR LEASE signs in the front.
Now I was thinking about this the other day, though. How many shoe stores do we need? How many different cell phone companies? How many varieties of supermarkets? Here near Seattle, I can name like six major supermarket retailers, I must have fifteen supermarkets within ten miles!
So where is the balance?
Fed Will Now Monetize The Most Recently Issued Agencies (precipitating dollar collapse?)
yitbos
All those Chinese factories which built huge overcapacity would be chasing after far smaller number of customers. Overcapacity would be destroyed, since we cannot have the pre-crisis level of demand for a long and long time. Now that would be really ugly.
It was loose money policies and that’s exactly my point. We were in a phase where all somebody had to do was to get a witty sign made and hang it up and they’d make money somehow!
Now we are seeing where business needs to cut corners, offer value and expertise, have a wide variety available under one roof, old fashioned general good business practices.
But it’s not gonna be bloodless by any means!
If the gummit can refrain from trying to fix the situation, the pain will be shorter.
bfl
The dotcom bust went through the exact same thing. There just wasn’t enough business to go around among all the .this and .that entities.
“I am a rich man as long as I don’t pay my creditors”
Titus Maccius Plautus
Now I disagree with having jobs who’s sole purpose is to keep people employed. That’s part of the profligate thinking that got us in to this mess.
I think when a person does something, they need to do it with all the courage, conviction, and skill they have to offer. Then, they will be successful.
One of Vonnegut’s books dealt with this, that in the future only the technicians, engineers, and scientists would have jobs, because everything else would be automatic.
Cat’s Cradle?
Can’t remember...
Obviously, we only need one: The ObamaStore.
back in the old FR days, “tsunami” was a good thing that was going to happen....how times have changed......
Years hence, people will get doctorates writing about the history of the internet.
It was very unusual in one respect: one of the first times in history a tool was developed that had no obvious use!!
Whatever the end result of .com, ecommerce, email, the use of the net for data sharing and DB’s, we are still in the early phases.
It’s kind of growing into and evolving without a stated direction.
Yes, social upheaval. Two dates to watch out for. Sept. 30th, 500,000 people have their social benefits run out...1,500,000 by Dec. 31st. I personally think these will be extended.
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