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To: Huck
The White House calculates that the deficit over the next ten years will be $9 trillion, which is $2 trillion more than estimated in February.

Now I'm just a silly engineer, but if the deficit is going to be $9 Trillion, the origional GUESS was $7 Trillion with an error of $2 Trillion. This is an error of over 28.5%, after a period of 6 months. I have no confidence that the new number is anywhere close to correct.

So, when the White House revises numbers on a 10 year forecast after 6 months; due to an error of 28.5% - I think it's safe to say that they have no idea what they are talking about. What will the error be in 6 more months, 2 years, 5 years or a decade out. Accuracy of this magnitude, left unquestioned, is what got Social Security, Medicare and almost every program managed by the gov't to go bankrupt. If I had errors anywhere near this magnitude in my work, I would be fired.

4 posted on 09/06/2009 8:59:50 AM PDT by Hodar (Who needs laws .... when this "feels" so right?)
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To: Hodar
If I had errors anywhere near this magnitude in my work, I would be fired.

In 1965 Medicare was "estimated" by Congress to cost $6 billion in 1990. The actual cost was something north of $113 billion. Must have been a rounding error, huh?

8 posted on 09/06/2009 9:33:43 AM PDT by Thermalseeker (Stop the insanity - Flush Congress!)
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