Asteroid attack: Putting Earth's defences to the test (Air Force runs "72hrs Warning" scenario)

New Scientist ^ | 23 September 2009 | David Shiga

[presidio9]

IT LOOKS inconsequential enough, the faint little spot moving leisurely across the sky. The mountain-top telescope that just detected it is taking it very seriously, though. It is an asteroid, one never seen before. Rapid-survey telescopes discover thousands of asteroids every year, but there's something very particular about this one. The telescope's software decides to wake several human astronomers with a text message they hoped they would never receive. The asteroid is on a collision course with Earth. It is the size of a skyscraper and it's big enough to raze a city to the ground. Oh, and it will be here in three days.

Far-fetched it might seem, but this scenario is all too plausible. Certainly it is realistic enough that the US air force recently brought together scientists, military officers and emergency-response officials for the first time to assess the nation's ability to cope, should it come to pass.

They were asked to imagine how their respective organisations would respond to a mythical asteroid called Innoculatus striking the Earth after just three days' warning. The asteroid consisted of two parts: a pile of rubble 270 metres across which was destined to splash down in the Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Africa, and a 50-metre-wide rock heading, in true Hollywood style, directly for Washington DC.

The exercise, which took place in December 2008, exposed the chilling dangers asteroids pose. Not only is there no plan for what to do when an asteroid hits, but our early-warning systems - which could make the difference between life and death - are woefully inadequate. The meeting provided just the wake-up call organiser Peter Garreston had hoped to create. He has long been concerned about the threat of an impact. "As a taxpayer,

[presidio9]

[dynachrome]

“Lucifers Hammer”

by Larry Niven

[DCBryan1]

Great book.

[DCBryan1]

We are domed!

[Little Pig]

Except that Hamner-Brown was a comet, not an asteroid. Comets are usually much bigger, and more likely to throw debris into the atmosphere. A land-striking nickel-iron asteroid, up to 100-200 meters, would make a heckuva hole, but nothing like a comet strike. Hitting the ocean, on the other hand, would probably be the same for a comet or asteroid. Now, a bigger asteroid, like 500 meters or more, and it’s game over.

[presidio9]

[GonzoGOP]

Actually the procedure for what to do if you detect a massive asteroid on collision course with the Earth with only 72 hours warning is well established.

(1) Place head firmly between legs.
(2) Kiss your @ss goodbye.

No a year or two worth of warning we might have a chance. Given a decade we could definitely do something. But 72 hours, bah. You couldn't even fuel and launch a shuttle in 72 hours.

[Springman]

Women and minorities hurt worse!!!

Also Bush's fault.

[Right Brother]

[dynachrome]

“asteroid consisted of two parts: a pile of rubble 270 metres across “

Should the pile of rubble be asteroids, maybe? At a certain point it won’t matter if you are any where near the impact , of course.

[Right Brother]

Damn, I didn’t see your post before I posted mine. Oh well, great minds.....

[GonzoGOP]

Now, a bigger asteroid, like 500 meters or more, and it’s game over.

No we could probably take a hit by a half kilometer job. It would mess the place up quite a bit, but it wouldn't be a species ender. It wouldn't even mess up the climate for more than a very short period of time.

The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event (AKA T-Rex be gone) was estimated to be over 10km. And even that didn't kill off everything. The dinosaurs died out, but they didn't have canned food. It won't be pleasant and you would probably loose 90% of humanity if we took a hit from another 10km object today. But that would still have 600,000 humans around to repopulate the planet.

[sunny48]

A fantastic trip - everyone should see this - enjoy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yV-7dL0juc

[onedoug]

“And the disciples said to Jesus, ‘Tell us how our end will be.’

And Jesus said, ‘Have you discovered the beginning that you should inquire of the end? For where the beginning is, there shall be the end.’” —Gospel of Thomas

[B-Chan]

ASTEROID SLAMS EARTH
_______________________________

WOMEN, MINORITIES HARDEST HIT

[Williams]

in real terms 500 meters is small yet it would doom us. And it might be much larger. They need a real plan to intercept these things and change the trajectory.

[Ditto]

A dedicated space telescope would fix this problem, (early warning) but such a mission could cost more than a billion dollars.

I'd say that's an infinitely wiser investment than Cash for Clunkers.

[xkaydet65]

Great book. IIRC Niven did it alone and not in concert with Gerry Pournelle. They worked wonderfully together on many books, espeially Footfall.

[Jaxter]

"With a three-day warning, you can walk away and be safe. But it scares me, given how poorly we've handled things of this nature in the past," he says, citing the failure to fully evacuate New Orleans ahead of hurricane Katrina in 2005."

"We need GREYHOUNDS damn it!"

[joe fonebone]

this is hugh and series..........