I’m not really sure. Based on what things look like today, he has momentum, and could pull this thing to a virtual toss up if he can sustain this momentum.
the_Watchman wrote:
CC2K: What are Hoffman’s chances of winning?
This district is fairly conservative. There are 46,000 more Republicans than Democrats in the district. There should have been a lesson to the GOP in 2008. Their former congressman, John McHugh had a 71.5% rating from the National Conservative Union. Last year, the relatively conservative (by New York standards) John McHugh carried this district by a wide margin (about 65% of the vote, IIRC). In the same election, a RINO, John McCain lost with less than 48% of the vote. The district has said no to RINOs and yes to conservatives just last year.
If the TEA party movement nationally gets behind Hoffman, it could make it an interesting three way race. I think the key is how much he can get from the Internet and the TEA parties and the 9/12 groups. If they make a stand for him, they give him strength, and he gives them a stronger position in the primaries next year. The jury is out on whether that support will materialize. This is exactly the kind of race that they all talk about, though. If they put their money and efforts where their mouths have been, it could be very interesting.
Also, Hoffman probably has a better ground game than his opponents. He has a business with 5 locations in the district, and his family owns and operates businesses in 13 other locations within the district. He has roots and ground contacts there.
The problem is that today, the RNC stepped in with big funding for Scozzafava. And the Democrat has a fundraiser planned in NYC with Pres__ent Obama scheduled to appear.
So we really need to spread the word to every TEA Party Patriots group and every 9/12 group. I still think that Hoffman has a chance. I’m certain that the message “RINO=defeat” has been achieved. Taking it to the next step, “RINO=Independent Conservative victory” will be much more difficult. But I think it is doable, at least theoretically.
If it can be done, that is a huge deal for the Republicans and for the TEA partiers and 9/12ers. It could change the dynamic between Republicans and these independent conservatives.
| From the desk of cc2k: |
I was in the district helping out Hoffman this past week ... exciting candidate! He’s got a shot!