U.S. Dollar Crash Is Not Going To Happen

Thanks for your excellent reply.

“Case in point, NONE of them saw the meltdown coming until after it occurred.”
Exactly. The housing bust was foreseen by housing experts, but the consensus opinion seemed to be that it was going to be a “soft landing.” Gary Schilling thought that it would be bad enough to cause a recession, and Joe Battipaglia and others foresaw the relentless stock market decline early on. But I didn’t see anyone predict the banking collapse that savaged most of our 401K’s (although an acquaintance of mine said that the guy that runs Pimco did). I guess that most that good analysts can hope for is to foresee the relative likelihood of various outcomes. Investors have to develop a strategy by obtaining some understanding of the fiscal and monetary forces upon which possible outcomes are premised.

“If they couldn’t manage their own money, why would you trust them to manage yours?”
Well, in their defense, even under the most idealized conditions, market analysis depends on the predictability of human behavior, and that is way too complex to be quantified. Having said that, none of thee guys should even pretend to have a foolproof system.
Furthermore, when into our intricate market machinery a monkey wrench is thrown, in the form of crooked politicians, community organizers, banking queens and whatever other manner of megalomaniac, we have a cesspool that not even Larry Kudlow or Bob Brinker could fathom.

“I feel you first need to decide the process you will use (asset allocation, momentum trading, etc.) before you decide when to buy or sell, etc”
Mostly asset allocation. Have something in this sucker stock market but look for a way out. Hedge against hyperinflation, catastrophic deflation, and whatever else might happen. Don’t be overly pessimistic, but buy a gun and keep your passport current. So here I am swatting flies and ducking rocks to preserve what I saved from my honest job.

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