The Turks, the Supreme Leader, and the Iranian people

PajamasMedia/Michael Ledeen-Faster Please ^ | Oct. 28th, 2009

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Turkish prime minister Erdogan has flown back home after a 2-day visit to Tehran. It was a big deal in all senses of the term. He went to Iran with a large delegation, including three ministers, many businessmen, leaders of Parliament, scads of reporters, and television crews. He met with Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki, “President” Ahmadinejad, and other ministers. According to Iranians who were involved in the meetings, the two countries reached agreement on many issues, the upshot of which is a considerable tightening of the working alliance between them:

–The creation of a joint airline; –The creation of a free trade zone along the border; –Turkish investment (to the tune of some $4 billion) in the Pars field in southern Iran; –Agreement that each would permit the other’s currency to circulate (a real winner for Iran, whose currency was previously not acceptable in Turkey); –Favorable prices to the Turks for Iranian oil and natural gas (I am told that the Iranians promised a 50% reduction of market rates! Seems preposterous to me, but we shall see). The Iranians are not known for strictly honoring such deals, but the Turks are entitled to be pleased at any significant reduction.

One of the most intriguing aspects of the Erdogan visit was the dog that did not bark, namely the failure of any meeting with Supreme Leader Khamenei. It was widely reported that such a meeting would take place; see here , here , here , and here, for example. But as of now, there is not even a quasi-official claim that Erdogan saw Khamenei, not even the sort of “virtual evidence” of Khamenei’s ability to rule that had been put out in recent weeks (a couple of days ago, the web site of the press service ISNA came up with an alleged speech to Hajj pilgrims, but when it turned out to be nearly a year old, it was quickly taken down, as was a reference to “archive photos” of meetings with Senegalese President Dane).

There is no confirmed evidence of any public or private activity by the supreme leader since October 6th. We know that Rafsanjani was twice turned away from Khamenei’s palace in Tehran, and there are several statements from leading religious figures to the effect that they tried to talk to the supreme leader, but his “busy schedule” did not permit it. There are credible reports that Chinese and Russian doctors were flown to Tehran to attend to Khamenei, who I believe–and reported–went into a coma around the 12th of this month. The first such report of which I am aware (thanks to Enduring America) appeared on Peiknet, a left-wing web site based in Berlin, and associated with the Tudeh (Communist) Party. Today the AP is “reporting” that Khamenei says that it is criminal to challenge the “results” of the June 12th elections. But he has said this before, many times, and there is no reason to think that he has actually spoken today. There is no reference in the AP story to the Erdogan visit, which would logically be an element in any public statement from the supreme leader.

So I’m sticking to my story: I think the supreme leader is gravely ill, unable to fulfill the requirements of his office, and I believe that eventually we will see direct evidence of his bad health. It is not unusual for such information to be suppressed in Iran. The death of the first supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, was not announced for several days after the event. The regime likes to sort things out before permitting the world to know what has happened. If Khamenei is incapacitated, it is even more difficult to “arrange” the followup.

Meanwhile, we are a week away from the pending demonstrations of November 4th, the annual excuse for bashing America (it’s the anniversary of the storming of the American Embassy in Tehran thirty years ago). This year, the opposition is calling for a monster demonstration against the regime, and the regime is plainly concerned, perhaps even frightened. This is demonstrated by a leaked Top Secret letter from Alireza Malekian, the Deputy Minister for Press and Dissemination of Information Affairs to the media, warning that there must be no reporting on anything that might “lead to tension…or breach public order.” Here is the full quote:

Given the possibility that groups opposed to the regime may engage in actions on the eve of November 4, the anniversary of the seizure of America’s den of spies, and may deviate public opinion from the ceremonies on the national day of struggle against world arrogance, and given that some domestic political factions, in continuation of the post-presidential election issues, possibly intend to politically exploit the situation and disrupt the peace, following up on past correspondence and stressing that the outcome of the tenth presidential election has been confirmed by official and legal authorities, I request that you refrain from disseminating any news, photo, or topic which can lead to tension in the society or breach public order…

I am told that there are Russian experts in Iran, working with the locals to jam outside transmissions in the runup to the 4th, and block the social networks (Twitter, Facebook, and cell phones) that have been such an important tool for the opposition to organize previous demonstrations. But it is significant, I think, that despite various calls for the regime to move against the Green leaders–Mousavi, Karroubi and Khatami–nothing of the sort has happened. I think this is because the regime tyrants know that any such move would precipitate open conflict, and I don’t think they are very confident that their security forces will be willing to wage war on their own people, especially if there is reason to wonder who is actually in charge atop the Islamic Republic.

We shall see in the next week.

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Obama is pulling the US out of middle-east and that vacuum will be quickly filled.

[Cicero]

I mistakenly thought that the “Supreme Leader” of the headline referred to Obama. He’s too busy playing golf to worry about this rapprochement between Iran and our former ally Turkey. In fact, if he had the time, he would probably applaud it and offer to build a few nuke plants in both countries.

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pong

[G8 Diplomat]

Halloween humor: Ali Zombienei