this race clearly had a bunch of special circumstances.
In 08 McHugh won it 65-35 or 145k to 75k for the dem.
Owens won tonight with under 65k. Only 120K total voted as opposed to 240k in 08. Obama won it 52-46. Owens won it 49-45.
Looks like pretty much the same number of dems showed up when you compare Owens to the dem in 08. But McHugh got 145k and Hoffman and Scozzofava combined only got 65k.
Clearly a whole bunch of people stayed home. I don’t know who stayed home because I havent seen any exit polls. How did Is go? Rs? Ds? But a lot of people just didn’t show up. Doesn’t really tell us much about what would happen in a full fledged election in a normal midterm year.
McHugh was a longtime guy who everyone knew. Hoffman was a new guy who no one knew and whose campaign ended up being seen as being about a national issue and not really the district.
I don’t really see it as a black eye for conservatives. If the party had gone with him from the start instead of mesisng around with Scozzafava and he had a few months to campaign and introduce himself he likely wins. I think if he sticks around and proves himself to the residents thre, he can win next year.
Pick the right candidates from the beginning and make sure you have party unity and you’ll do well, like in NJ and VA.
Still, any downside to conservatives is more than outweighed by the huge egg on Obama’s face after going all out for Corzine and getting spanked.
Things look good for 2010. Dems are losing enthusiasm, if health care goes down they’ll lose even more. We have good candidates and favorable races next year.
The rat voters in NY-23 outnumber conservative voters...plus voters willing to throw away their vote on someone who dropped out from the race. Conservatives can't win this seat...even when the GOP candidate gives up. But a RINO can win the seat by 2-1 margins.
Clearly a whole bunch of people stayed home.
That would be moderate Republicans and independents who didn't see an acceptable candidate to vote for.
Thank you for those numbers. This loss is more stunning than I thought.
McHugh was a longtime guy who everyone knew. Hoffman was a new guy who no one knew and whose campaign ended up being seen as being about a national issue and not really the district.
Dede was picked in late July so she had less than 3 1/2 months to run. I posted on another forum, before Dede quit, that Hoffman would get less than half the GOP vote...even with Dede quiting he got less than half the GOP vote.
Still, any downside to conservatives is more than outweighed by the huge egg on Obama’s face after going all out for Corzine and getting spanked.
Things look good for 2010. Dems are losing enthusiasm, if health care goes down they’ll lose even more. We have good candidates and favorable races next year.
I agree, but wouldn't tonight be even better if Owen's lost? If my post seems disrespectful I don't mean to be. You have a right to fight for the soul of the GOP. I'm more interested in stopping 0 and winning elections. Your post was thoughtful and supported by logic and facts, even if I don't agree with some of your conclusions, I appreciate this response.