Scientists baffled by global warming's time-out

salon.com ^ | Nov. 20, 2009 | Gerald Traufetter

[Free ThinkerNY]

Temperatures haven't risen this decade, as climatologists expected. Is it sunspots? Ocean currents? Secret volcano?

At least the weather in Copenhagen is likely to be cooperating. The Danish Meteorological Institute predicts that temperatures in December, when the city will host the United Nations Climate Change Conference, will be one degree above the long-term average.

Otherwise, however, not much is happening with global warming at the moment. The Earth's average temperatures have stopping climbing since the beginning of the millennium, and it even looks as though global warming could come to a standstill this year.

Ironically, climate change appears to have stalled in the run-up to the upcoming world summit in the Danish capital, where thousands of politicians, bureaucrats, scientists, business leaders and environmental activists plan to negotiate a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Billions of euros are at stake in the negotiations.

Reached a plateau

The planet's temperature curve rose sharply for almost 30 years, as global temperatures increased by an average of 0.7 degrees Celsius (1.25 degrees Fahrenheit) from the 1970s to the late 1990s. "At present, however, the warming is taking a break," confirms meteorologist Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in the northern German city of Kiel. Latif, one of Germany's best-known climatologists, says that the temperature curve has reached a plateau. "There can be no argument about that," he says. "We have to face that fact."

[Free ThinkerNY]

[SoldierDad]

I sure could use some of that global warming right now - it’s gettin down right chilly outside right now.

[rarestia]

*sigh* These idiots don’t get it. They just don’t get it.

[Darksheare]

Gee.. considering most of the data has been faked....

[colorado tanker]

I wonder if any of these geniuses will even ask the question, does this show us that CO2 concentrations don't drive global temps???

[GingisK]

Someone should refer them to: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2390828/posts

and its references.

[C210N]

Is it sunspots? Ocean currents? Secret volcano?

It's sunspots, or rather the lack of them for a long period of time.

In the chart below, when 2009 is said and done, it will take its rightful place AHEAD of 2008.

[wysiwyg]

Or this one: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2390574/posts

[rockinqsranch]

The Left: HEY MAN! Whuzz Goin’non?

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Not to worry. They can flawlessly predict the ineluctable future; what they can't explain is the intractable present.

[Seruzawa]

Temperatures haven’t “stopped rising”. They have gone down. Even here the GW fanatics have to engage in half-truths.

[El Gato]

There are two sunspots visible on the face of the sun. More than in the very recent past. The Sun may be waking up.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

"Climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf is so convinced that his predictions will be correct in the end that he is willing to back up his conviction with a €2,500 ($3,700) bet. "I will win," says Rahmstorf.

His adversary Latif turned down the bet, saying that the matter was too serious for gambling. "We are scientists, not poker players."

It's so much better to gamble with O.P.M. -- trillions and trillions of dollars worth. These "scientists" should be willing to back up their "predictions" with serious cash.

[Oratam]

It's interesting that Salon.com chooses to run this on the very day the hacked climate scam emails made news.

Can you say 'cover'? I knew you could.

[FrankR]

OH NO, Mr. Bill...if this hoax, er, theory collapses, algore will be put back into his room at bellevue to weave baskets. I don't know if he can take losing the white house and his favorite ruse all in one decade.

Well, al baby...all good things must come to an end, they say, But surely you have amassed a large enough fortune to make it the rest of your days...I mean, if you cut down on your energy use at your large home, and your corporate jet travel. Hell, that alone should lower the temperature another degree or two.

Of course, if you and your warming CULT need a place to meet and greet I hear both the old Jim Jones land is available, as well as the branch davidians strong hold in Waco. I mean, a cult, is a cult, is a cult.

But just because one door closes for you al, baby, another door could open...we could really used someone with your tenacity to go find obama's real birth certificate.

[El Gato]

It's sunspots, or rather the lack of them for a long period of time.

We are in a Deep Solar Minimum Not only sunspot numbers are way down, but also the strength of the Solar Wind and solar irradiance. The sun has "woken up" a bit in the couple of months, just as it should have.

[American Constitutionalist]

The 2000 election, ACORN, and now this, there seems to be a pattern here.

[dead]

The earth is getting hotter!

[NormsRevenge]

Gorebalists are in severe distress.. lol

[Billthedrill]

Even though the temperature standstill probably has no effect on the long-term warming trend, it does raise doubts about the predictive value of climate models...

Were it not a political issue the thing would have retreated by now into the usual mix of modeling practice. For this purpose there are three basic levels: descriptive, predictive, normative. If you don't get the level underneath correct the one above won't work. What has happened is that the political activists have attempted to drag the thing straight to the level of normative modeling - if you want B to happen, do A, A being a global political control over industry, development, and the redistribution of wealth. Unfortunately the predictive precursor - if you do A, B will happen - isn't sound enough to support normative modeling.

And so we are in the position of, as a certain liberal friend of mine put it, "doing the right thing even if the reason is wrong," his "right thing" being control and redistribution. Questioning that is quite outside the purview of modeling. And that's why this probably isn't going away anytime soon.