Posted on 11/22/2009 10:10:41 AM PST by blam
25 Reasons We Will Not Have a Depression
Kimball Corson
November 20, 2009
One particularly vitriolic reader of my last article on The Distorted Shape of the Recovering Economy seemed to think I was predicting a doomsday scenario.
I was not at all. Richard Duncan’s tentatively predicted Fall of Rome scenario is a true doomsday scenario, not mine.
My focus of late has been much more on the need for transparency and candor from our government on TARP I and II and the stimulus program results, as well as, more importantly, on getting the stimulus infrastructure program facilitated, expanded and working much better. The Administration needs to confess errors, fix them and get on with things. Meanwhile, there are some signs of life in our economy and they should not be overlooked or ignored. I am not arguing we will have a robust recovery.
I am arguing we will not have a depression and things will pick up, just more slowly than we would like and in the face of more risk, such as much higher oil prices, than we would like. Also, with more unemployment than we would prefer.
Consider these improvements:
-- The Baltic Dry Index is up
-- Multinationals and related companies are improving fast
-- The U.S. share of world GDP is staying about constant
-- With exceptions, the world economy is improving well
-- UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) are seeing and expecting increased traffic
-- The rate of new jobless claims is dropping steadily
-- The housing market is tending to bottom
-- New housing starts are up in many areas
-- The U.S. private sector is slowly getting deleveraged
-- Oil prices could be a lot worse
-- Leading economic indicators (LEI)are on the rise
-- Soros and Buffett are buying, e.g., Wal-Mart (WMT)
-- U.S. exports are picking up
-- Big TARP banks are doing better
-- The velocity of money is improving
-- Inflation and deflation are under decent control
-- GDP growth, while small last quarter, was not negative
-- The dollar is not in freefall
-- Our debt-to-GDP ratio is not at all bad, contrary to popular belief
-- Most economists do not believe a depression is very likely
-- Price earnings ratios of large cap stocks are at a discount
-- We are economically better off than we were a year ago
-- Credit availabilty, while not good, is not frozen as it was
-- The retail sector is doing better, according to the NBER
-- Government will have paid-back TARP moneys to use soon
Without dwelling on or developing these points, but by simply listing them, I want to make clear that, in my view, we are not heading for a depression and we are not heading for a doomsday scenario. To be sure, we have buckets of trouble, but it is all in the framework of a slow, troubled recovery with excessive unemployment tenaciously hanging on.
With a good, cleaned-up and expanded infrastructure rebuilding program that is legally facilitated, made more labor intensive and well administered, we can attack the unemployment program directly and help improve our infrastructure for the future recovery at the same time.
We need to take heart, fix things and get busy.
How are KoolAid futures?
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Republicans win back Congress in 2010
Yeah, that Rx worked just perfectly for Japan! Public spending....yeah, that's the ticket!
WHEW! Everything is gonna be OK! I feel so much better!
This author has them cornered.
Yes, but if we persist in buying things(national health care)we can’t pay for we will go down the drain.
Ain’t gonna happen - The SOCIALIST DemoRATS will steal the 2010 election just like they did 2008.
Hap-py days arrrre here a-gain!
I went ahead and also looked at Richard Duncan’s prognostications in his “Fall of Rome” ideas. They’re grim.
Here are my predictions.
1. Many predictions will have a germ of truth contained within them, but no single prediction will be able to tell me what will happen with complete precision.
2. No matter how well I plan, the unexpected will occur.
3. No solution to any problem solves it with perfection.
4. As long as there are people involved, expect uncertainty.
So I don’t know what’s going to happen to the economy in 10 months or 10 years, and these writers can make predictions based on better knowledge than mine, but even as their predictions are made, people are changing their habits and outlooks and ideas to either profit from those expert predictions or avoid the dire consequences of those expert predictions.
All I know is that I’m glad that I built a root cellar this fall. It’s nice to have fresh veggies at little cost. I’m also glad that I have a son who tells me that no matter what happens, he’s got my back, and a lovely wife who supports me, and faith in God that there’s a reason for all this. Otherwise, I’m just keeping my eyes open for anything.
#26 That incoming asteroid hit will erase all of these economic problems instantly
From the profile of author Kimball Corson:
I retired early and have been circumnavigating the world on my own sailboat for the last several years. I survived the tsunami in Pago Pago, American Samoa and left there for New Zealand, but my autopilot failed in route and I am now in Neiafu, Vava'u, Tonga for the cyclone season in the South Pacific.
antigloom and doom!
An excellent book: Cosmic Winter
Define depress. Prices at the grocery store don’t reflect depression, unless inflation is depression. Even at inflated prices, people have fewer dollars, so maybe that is depression. But all is well. The US is rich enough to handle 50 percent unemployment and a dollar that trades even with the peso. It’s all good. Don’t worry about those rising fuel prices. Energy doesn’t have anything to do with production. Besides, production obviously doesn’t have anything to do with the market. We are going to be okay. Insurance premiums are up, way up, while coverage is down, but Obamaocare is on its way. Can’t get a loan to buy a car, but can’t find a car dealer anyhow, and you don’t need a car to drive to work when you don’t have a job. It’s cool. The price of peppers in Peru is up. China is doing well, and someone, somewhere got a capital gains tax cut. So there is hope.
Someone needs to cut back on their meds.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.