Posted on 11/23/2009 6:24:17 AM PST by SeekAndFind
There has been an endless amount of chatter about the price of gold being too high (it's not) and perhaps representing a bubble. It also seems that fair amounts of ink and windage have been wasted on worries about the gold trade being "too crowded."
In my daily column on my own Web site, on Sept. 17, I noted a remark by Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter that the gold market was "terribly, egregiously, preposterously, shockingly overpopulated."
That day, gold closed at $1,014 an ounce. Here we are, about two months later, and gold is more than 10% higher.
In a bull market, worrying about an idea being too crowded with like-minded investors is not very productive. More likely than not, it will help to eliminate you from a winning position.
At some point, when the gold market is finally reaching a top, it will, in fact, be too crowded. But we're almost nine years into this bull market in gold, and to me it seems that there are more people of the mind that "the trade" is too crowded than there are who say it isn't.
We'll know gold is overcrowded when . . . For the long-gold trade to really become too crowded, certain events will need to occur:
* Goldman Sachs (GS, news, msgs) will have had "bus tours" to a bunch of mines, like the tours it and other companies have arranged for different industries, particularly technology.
* The public will have to be involved in a major way, and we'll see ads on Bubblevision encouraging people to buy gold instead of prodding them to sell their jewelry, as is the case these days.
(Excerpt) Read more at articles.moneycentral.msn.com ...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-hits-fresh-high-as-dec-contract-tops-1160-2009-11-22
Gold hits new high on weaker dollar, Iran
By Polya Lesova & Moming Zhou, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Gold futures rallied Monday for a seventh day, with the December contract hitting a new high near $1,170 an ounce, as dollar weakness and escalating tensions between Iran and the west boosted gold’s appeal as a safe haven and a hedge against inflation.
Gold futures have already seen a seven-day winning streak ended on Nov. 11. The metal has only recorded one losing session this month.
“It is an unbelievable rally,” said Darin Newsom, a senior analyst at Telvent DTN, adding that buying is coming from inflation hedge and safe-haven buying due to continued global economic concerns.
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Forever, just like the tech and the housing bubble.
It will cool down when people realize they can’t buy food with it . . . which may or many not happen!
When this one pops, what will they replace it with?
That’s why the best strategy is to keep 10% in precious metals (not 100% or 0%)
10%...or 30-40% when the Constitution is getting trashed daily.
10%...or 30-40% when the Constitution is getting trashed daily.
There is either a currency bubble or a gold bubble.
Gold’s inexorable, but gentle, sometimes hesitant rise is evidence of one of them.
government...
If we had started with 10 at the peak of the tech boom, we would have 30-40 by now.
To those who are considering shorting gold, I give one bit of sound financial advice (which especially applies to gold) you ignore at your peril:
Markets can remain irrational for MUCH longer than you can remain solvent.
One item from Fleckenstein's bubble-features list - "Banks will need to find a way to put money into gold -- because no modern mania has ever ended without the banks finding a way to lose money in it" - isn't that far from the truth. Banks tend to lend pell-mell to gold companies when the top of a gold bubble's reached. We're not there yet: the typical gold exploration stock is selling way below what it would be if the banks were beating the bushes for projects to finance. Lending money's still hard to find, particularly for reactivated mines.
At the peak of a gold bubble, exploration stocks with mine-sized deposits will be selling as if bank financing were a sure thing. We're far, far away from that point now.
Lead.....
$1,174 now. HOLY COW!
Jim Sinclair agrees with Alf Fields predictions..
http://jsmineset.com/2009/05/10/alf-field%E2%80%99s-gold-price-predictions/
One question, If paper money becomes useless would not Gold or silver retain trading value if society still exists? I personally would want a little gold and silver because money is on a quick road to uselessness.
Oh yea Lead, Food, seeds, and Spices will also be more valuable than paper money.
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