“The oil embargo, instituted by the US, led directly to the conflict. But as with all instigations, the US thought it would end quickly.”
Instigation/provocation, maybe. But not in the sense that war was what we wanted, methinks. More like how it is with Iran nowadays, only vastly harsher. We knew Japan was bad news and wanted to intimidate and neutralize them. If it came to war, we probably thought we could take ‘em. As for desiring war, I doubt it. Just like almost no one wants to go to war with Iran. Just like no hardly ever wants to go to war. But we all play these gaes, and kinda sometimes do want it, but don’t, but do, but don’t, but do...
The militarists in Japan controlled the Diet and the throne, and instead of looking into the future, decided on the 'one-big-battle' to put the US in it's place.
Obviously, they didn't believe what happens when you piss off the big dog in the neighborhood.
The lack of oil was necessitate a Japanese advance into the East Indies, and hence an attack on the Phillipines. What I have never understood was why MacArthur was unprepared for the attack.