Mitch,
I thought that it was pretty good, actually. For a guy that has been around as long as Spratt to poll below 50%, that flashes danger for his re-election.
With a margin of error of +/-4% in this poll, Mulvaney at -7 is within the margin of error, and statistically, might even be leading by 1.
Voters seem to be unfamiliar with Mulvaney. When asked if they view him favorably or unfavorably, 62% answered “Not Sure”. They do know John Spratt, and by 42 to 41% they disapprove of his job performance. Mulvaney needs to introduce himself to the district.
47% of the voters believe that John Spratt’s Ideology is “About right” for the district, yet 38% are either unaware or are misinformed of the fact that he voted for the health care bill. Since only 33% of the voters support the health care bill, Mulvaney should be able to make up ground with this group.
With 9 months until Election Day, I’m sure this campaign can be successful.
You’re absolutely right. There’s a clear path for Mulvaney according to these numbers.
As an aside, it’s interesting to see the different spin on the same polling data, some from the exact same outlets...
“Poll: Spratt leads would be opponent” (The State)
“Poll says Spratt not supported by majority in district” (The State)
“Poll: Spratt faces challenges in November election” (The Herald)
“Poll: Spratt would beat challengers” (The Herald)
“SC-5 Poll: Good News For Spratt” (RealClearPolitics)
“Spratt leads Mulvaney by 7 points” (Politico)
“Spratt faces a battle, but at least he leads” (The Hill)