They might have enough fissionable material to do a nuke. Not that it is likely to work very well, but efficiency of the device is not really the point. It does not seem that any of these third world detonations are very good at yields.
As always, they are political weapons, versus actual weapons. By that I mean that you really can’t use them against others without being turned to a cinder yourself(not that some of the clergy would care given that they’re mostly Twelvers). My guess is that they’ve acquired some more fireworks from the Ruskies that they’re going to set off. Honestly, they’re like a bunch of kids on the Fourth of July. Chances are, they’re going to get their hands blown off eventually. They are not exceptionally bright on such matters, but with the literacy rate being exceptionally low in Iran, there is not going to be a lot of political responsibility on matters such as this.
How does NK firing at SK play into it?
It is by now an open secret among intel agencies that Iran has at least six or nearly a dozen nuclear weapons already in nose cones on missiles that can all reach Tel Aviv and Eastern Europe.
The fissionable material for this was obtained from Ukraine and is somewhat degenerated but still capable of destruction or at worst serve as dirty bombs.
Most likely right now as a target are:
1. the Saudi oil fields, pipelines and refineries. Not blocking the Straits of Hormoz. Yemeni Shia opeartives would be used for this attack unless Iran uses short range missiles/rockets of which it has large numbers.
2. New York and Los Angeles - specially ports in both and/or Los Angeles airport. To cripple them and thus commerce.
Depending on the lunacy in play on Feb 11th, these are the ways and PLEASE remember they already have nukes. NOt the best ones but enough to cause huge harm. One dirty bomb on Tel Aviv poisons a big part of Israel.
I’ll guess a bunch of missile tests coupled with rantings and ravings about hatred for Israel and Jews, decline of the west and Great Satan etc.
bad as Ahm-a-whackjob is, and as seriously as we must take the Iranian nuke and missile programs, I don’t think there’s (yet) much new capability that they will demonstrate by Feb. 11
this is mainly internal regime propaganda — and the more that they do force Israel to regard the situation as urgent, the more imminent will be Israeli strikes
too soon for the whackoffs to try to provoke a bigger confrontation