As Australia's population starts to age away, isn't it time to youthen the population by increased birth rates among the young (especially with child-bearing age women)?
It'd be better to cut down the median age from ~37 down to ~25.
Posted on 01/31/2010 10:30:40 PM PST by myknowledge
Australia will be forced to look overseas for more new citizens as rising health and aged care costs threaten to drive the country into debt by 2050, Treasury figures released today show.
The 2010 Intergenerational Report, launched by Treasurer Wayne Swan today, outlines the economic challenges facing Australia's economy over the next 40 years as the workforce participation rate drops and ageing baby boomers demand more from the country's health and aged care services.
It also argues that with the population set to hit 35 million by 2050 the country's immigration intake will need to be maintained or boosted to help pay for the increased costs.
And it reveals that an 8 per cent drop in GDP if nothing is done to combat climate change by 2050.
The Federal Government will use the report to argue for measures to lift national productivity, exercise fiscal restraint, and reduce carbon emissions.
As the number of Australians aged between 65 and 84 will double over the next 40 years, the report predicts that so too will health spending.
This means that 2050 government spending will outstrip revenue by 2.75 per cent of GDP, with half of all government spending going towards health care, aged pensions and aged care.
At present around a quarter of Government spending is on health.
If nothing is done to close the "fiscal gap", Australia's net debt will hit 20 per cent of GDP and the Budget would be in deficit by 3.75 per cent by 2050.
That is in comparison to the latest Budget projections that put the net debt peaking at 13 per cent in 2013.
The report also predicts that while living standards will still rise, they will do so at a slower rate than the past 40 years, with just 2.7 people working to support the costs of older Australians compared to five to one now.
Mr Swan told the National Press Club that if action is taken now it will avoid harsher adjustments in the future.
"This IGR is a stark reminder that we can't sit on our hands or play political games with this country's future," he said.
Mr Swan said the challenges left the Government with three options.
"We can cut government services or increase taxes, we can allow Budget pressures to build and leave the problem for future generations to deal with, or we can take steps now to grow our economy."
With the participation rate expected to drop to around 60 per cent by 2050 Mr Swan, has announced that the Government will spend $43 million in a bid to keep older Australians in the workforce.
The spending will target employers by funding 2,000 places to help older workers train as supervisors and will also fund support and training for 2,000 workers with health conditions or injuries.
Australia's population is expected to hit 35 million by 2050 but it will grow at a slower rate than in the past, at 1.2 per cent per year.
Out of 35 million people, almost 23 per cent will be over 65, 21 per cent will be between 15 and 24 and just over 6 per cent will be aged 14 and under.
The fertility rate is projected to stay around 1.9 births per woman, which is slightly higher than the 1.7 forecast in the last IGR.
Mr Swan says over the next 40 years net overseas migration will average around 180,000 per year, compared to around 110,000 now.
Immigrants will help reduce the rate of population ageing and combat increased costs as they tend to be of working age.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has already said that if productivity growth was lifted to 2 per cent over the next 40 years Australians would be $16,000 better off.
As Australia's population starts to age away, isn't it time to youthen the population by increased birth rates among the young (especially with child-bearing age women)?
It'd be better to cut down the median age from ~37 down to ~25.
>>As Australia’s population starts to age away, isn’t it time to youthen the population by increased birth rates among the young (especially with child-bearing age women)?<<
It hasn’t worked in Japan, Europe nor the USA. The difference is the USA allows/encourages immigration and everyone wants to come here.
It seems that once a certain level of economic satisfaction is reached, fecundity takes a back seat.
The world is now dealing with an unprecedented phenomenon in recorded human history — the lack of desire of propagation among those who can most afford it.
And as one of those who have chosen not to procreate, I can tell you it is a bit odd: I don’t feel any desire nor have I ever felt that desire to have kids (not to be confused with sexual desire).
We may be seeing more micro-evolution than we give ourselves credit for observing.
They don’t have any problem that Dr. Zeke, Rahm Emanuel’s death panel doctor brother, can’t handle. Zero should send Zeke down under to plant some of the useless eater population, in the name of peace, love, and the collective need.
BREED!!!
I dont want America turned into MEXICO!!!
Dont call me racist this is coming form a person living in Ca and of mexican descent!!
And as one of those who have chosen not to procreate, I can tell you it is a bit odd: I don’t feel any desire nor have I ever felt that desire to have kids (not to be confused with sexual desire).An interesting, common and 'modern' view. May I ask your religious point of view?
>>An interesting, common and ‘modern’ view. May I ask your religious point of view?<<
Very Christian.
Are you married?
>>Dont call me racist this is coming form a person living in Ca and of mexican descent!!<<
LEGAL Immigration has always been our country’s strength. It only began to be a weakness when the cult of “multiculturalism” set in and changed us from a mixing pot to a salad bowl.
And yes, we saw in Southern California what happens when we let Latin American culture hold sway over American Culture.
God only knows if we can turn it back. I assure you there are many from the old Iron Curtain countries who want to assimilate and become Americans. But, from the south, from Cuba to Argentina, there is little desire for the same.
The difference is American taxpayers get stuck being taxed to death to pay for endless freebies for illegals. Some cannot afford to start a family. Some are too stressed because of economic uncertainty in Hussein’s Depression.
Meanwhile idiots and some “church folk” plus Obama want to flood the USa with more haitians.
>>Are you married?<<
Very and happily very. But we were married very late in life, far beyond proper child-bearing years.
And it was God’s gift itself I didn’t have kids with my first wife (and God saw fit to keep that string going, keeping her barren to this day).
I don’t care what the science magicians can pull out of their hats — after the early 30s, having kids is dangerous — for child and mother. If it happens as a matter of course, great. But it is a bad plan.
Now we are decades beyond that.
See my 8. LEGAL immigration can still infuse us with strength. If managed properly.
Since every industrialized country on Earth is facing the same demographic problem every country is going to end up having to restrict the ability of their productive citizens to leave. It going to be the Roman Latifundia all over again.
Don't blame you, but kids, food, clothing, medical care and housing are expensive and take big money. Kids turn into consumers really quick...Seems only the ignorant, uneducated morons keep having kids, kids they clearly cannot afford.
“The world is now dealing with an unprecedented phenomenon in recorded human history — the lack of desire of propagation among those who can most afford it.”
Plato argued the same thing.
“And as one of those who have chosen not to procreate, I can tell you it is a bit odd: I don’t feel any desire nor have I ever felt that desire to have kids (not to be confused with sexual desire).”
And that’s just it. You have the desire but contraception permits you to have your cake and eat it to. It has nothing to do with prosperity, and everything to do with contraception.
This whole setup didn’t work for Japan, but I have to ask, where are theimmigrants going to come from? The Phillippines are the only nation in that part of the world with a TFR of over 2.5, and that includes Indonesia.
We may be seeing more micro-evolution than we give ourselves credit for observing.
“Very Christian.”
Yeah, right. Don’t believe it.
That’s what happens when you encourage and pay for abortion on demand for any reason.
>>“Very Christian.”
Yeah, right. Don’t believe it.<<
Are you saying I am not?
First they came for the unborn...now granny.
I’m saying, nothing you’ve said here suggests to me a Christian motivation. Now I could be wrong here.
>>I’m saying, nothing you’ve said here suggests to me a Christian motivation. Now I could be wrong here.<<
It wasn’t part of the conversation — I was stating facts. You not only could be, but you are wrong.
But your kind generally are.
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