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Thinking the Unthinkable: War With Iran
The American Interest ^ | March 3rd, 2010 | WALTER RUSSELL MEAD

Posted on 03/05/2010 7:50:52 PM PST by neverdem

“Do not even think about bombing Iran,” wrote Michael O’Hanlon and Bruce Reidel in yesterday’s Financial Times.  Pointing out that the US has two unpopular and unfinished wars in the region already, and that the damage from any military strikes on the Islamic Republic would be unlikely to do enough damage to its nuclear program to justify the military and political cost, and also that Iran would have many opportunities to retaliate against US interests in the region, they urge President Obama to take this option off the table completely.  Living with a nuclear Iran won’t be fun, but it’s better than the alternatives, so let’s start making plans for the inevitable.

I actually agree with O’Hanlon and Reid that military strikes against the Iranian nuclear program aren’t likely to get us anywhere good, but that doesn’t mean we can stop thinking about them.

--snip--

There are other scenarios that end up with the US and Iran with daggers drawn.  There are signs that the mullahs overestimate their clout and underestimate America’s ability to confront them.  In the past, Iranian radical factions have turned up the temperature in the US-Iranian relationship in order to improve their political standing at home. Calling on Iranians to unite against the foreign menace has worked before, isolating moderates and consolidating the radicals’ grip on power; it’s easy to see them trying this same tactic again.  Radicals used the 1979 seizure of American diplomatic hostages, for example, to discredit moderates during the Iranian Revolution.  At other times radicals have sent boats out into the Gulf to harass American shipping, and supported Iraqi groups fighting American troops.  It would be easy for radical clerics and activists to miscalculate and, intending only to stage a crisis, to overreach and set off a war...

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.the-american-interest.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: bho44; bhomiddleeast; bhonukes; iran; iraniannukes
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1 posted on 03/05/2010 7:50:53 PM PST by neverdem
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To: neverdem

We really must get our own house in order before proceeding with another overseas conflict. Honestly, getting involved in a war with Iran will likely be the trigger event for a huge regional (or global) conflict and ultimate confrontation with the Russians (Soviets by another name).


2 posted on 03/05/2010 8:00:06 PM PST by ronnyquest (That's what governments are for: to get in a man's way.)
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To: neverdem

There will never be a war with Iran. Iran will launch its few nuclear warheads toward Israel and Israel will retaliate. War over. Israel will then be blamed for it all and the battle of Armageddon will have a reason to happen.


3 posted on 03/05/2010 8:00:45 PM PST by doc1019 (To call Obama a bumbling idiot would be an insult to bumbling idiots worldwide.)
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To: neverdem

Obama doen’t have half of ‘what it takes’ to handle the Presidency, nevermind the situation in Iran. We need an amalgam of Reagan and Patton.


4 posted on 03/05/2010 8:02:31 PM PST by Domestic Church (AMDG...)
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To: neverdem
someone.. probably Iran is supplying arms and ammo to those other two wars... if we take out Iran there is a good chance we may just win all 3 simultaneously.
5 posted on 03/05/2010 8:06:26 PM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama = Epic Fail)
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To: neverdem

The way I see it, there are only two options on the table with regards to Iran and their pursuit of nuclear weapons. There’s the conventional option and the nuclear option. I think we could pull off a limited conventional attack that could disable their nuclear program for another decade. I would prefer to not use nukes but I think it should be on the table too. There is no living with a nuclear Iran IMO. Iran can not have nukes. period.


6 posted on 03/05/2010 8:12:24 PM PST by RC one (WHAT!!!!)
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To: neverdem

I don’t want a conflict. But I especially don’t want a conflict with this handwringing Hamlet as the Commander in Chief. This guy goes back and forth on where he is going to try these jihadist murderers, and can’t make up his mind.

What on EARTH will he do in a situation where there is pressure and he has to make decisions about the lives of our military personnel? He is likely to get us in up to our neck, then change his mind and pull us out, getting our troops killed in the process.

I don’t give a crap what happens, unless we actually are physically attacked I don’t want him anywhere near the military levers of power.

Ann Coulter said it best when she described what happens when Democrats go to war. Men die and the country is humiliated.


7 posted on 03/05/2010 8:19:04 PM PST by rlmorel (We are traveling "The Road to Serfdom".)
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To: RC one
"The way I see it, there are only two options on the table with regards to Iran and their pursuit of nuclear weapons. There’s the conventional option and the nuclear option. I think we could pull off a limited conventional attack that could disable their nuclear program for another decade. I would prefer to not use nukes but I think it should be on the table too. There is no living with a nuclear Iran IMO. Iran can not have nukes. period."

Good analysis. If Iran gets nukes, then the mutual fear guarantees one side or the other will launch sooner rather than later. Given the proximity of the countries, it's clear that the first side to launch in a nuclear contest stands the best chance of winning. Thus, every conflict and round of saber rattling creates an incentive to go first. Eventually one side won't be able to resist, out of fear, vainglory or messianic fervor, it's inevitable. I'd give it no more than five years after Iran has missiles ready to go.

8 posted on 03/05/2010 8:20:08 PM PST by circlecity
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To: doc1019

Ezekiel 38 will happen BEFORE Armageddon. And “those who dwell idlely in the coastal lands” will be wiped out along with the Russians and Persians.

Just sayin....


9 posted on 03/05/2010 8:53:31 PM PST by RachelFaith (2010 is going to be a 100 seat Tsunami)
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To: neverdem

There is NO ONE .. “NO ONE” that will take this problem in hand like ‘Patton’ would have .. (If he had been our President)!

My way of doing things is .. The Very First Time that a Piece of Shit Mooslime started talking about “Eliminating” Israel or that they are going to “Destroy” the Great Satan .. America .. There would be NOTHING MORE than a Scorched Earth “HOLE” in the GD ground where the Bastard .. USE TO LIVE!!

I KNOW that G. Scott was an asshole LIB ‘but’ he portrayed General Patton as he really was!

It’s sad .. We have come from being the most powerful and most feared Military on the face of the earth to nothing more than a .. “Paper Tiger”.

For you kids .. Take a look:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyUX6wV1lBQ


10 posted on 03/05/2010 8:55:15 PM PST by plinyelder ("I've noticed that everybody that is for abortion has already been born." -- Ronald Reagan)
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To: plinyelder

It is because Obama is weak that a war will be fought. If I was an enemy if America I would strike now!


11 posted on 03/05/2010 8:57:49 PM PST by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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To: ronnyquest
We really must get our own house in order before proceeding with another overseas conflict

The nature of these things are such that sometimes there is no choice, or only a bunch of equally bad choices. That is especially true when one puts off or makes bad choices early on in the affair.

12 posted on 03/05/2010 8:58:12 PM PST by El Gato ("The second amendment is the reset button of the US constitution"-Doug McKay)
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To: RachelFaith

No argument from me. ;-)


13 posted on 03/05/2010 9:02:49 PM PST by doc1019 (To call Obama a bumbling idiot would be an insult to bumbling idiots worldwide.)
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To: plinyelder
I KNOW that G. Scott was an asshole LIB ‘but’ he portrayed General Patton as he really was!

Well, sort of. Patton was smaller and with a high nasal voice.

the real Patton on entering Messina

14 posted on 03/05/2010 9:05:32 PM PST by El Gato ("The second amendment is the reset button of the US constitution"-Doug McKay)
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To: neverdem

I know .. a lot of you ‘ole timers’ are saying .. WTF!

This was not meant to be the original G. Scott speech from the movie!

THIS is what I believe Patton would be saying to us TODAY!

For you kids .. Give me a little time and I’ll go find the original .. unless someone else can beat me to it! LOL


15 posted on 03/05/2010 9:08:59 PM PST by plinyelder ("I've noticed that everybody that is for abortion has already been born." -- Ronald Reagan)
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To: neverdem

Iran declared war on the USA in Nov. 1979. We are just in denial about it.


16 posted on 03/05/2010 9:13:57 PM PST by PGR88 (I'm so open-minded, my brains fell out.)
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To: neverdem

DAMN .. I’ve looked all over Youtube and can’t find that GREAT George C Scott, Patton intro to the movie “PATTON”!

Can someone help me out here?

All I can find are parody’s!


17 posted on 03/05/2010 9:14:00 PM PST by plinyelder ("I've noticed that everybody that is for abortion has already been born." -- Ronald Reagan)
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To: El Gato

DAMN IT El Gato

Don’t ruin my Fantasy’s!


18 posted on 03/05/2010 9:15:34 PM PST by plinyelder ("I've noticed that everybody that is for abortion has already been born." -- Ronald Reagan)
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To: plinyelder
Don’t ruin my Fantasy’s!

Go read some biographies. He was even more "colorful" and contradictory than the movie version.

You'll learn a lot more about real soliders and leaders. And you'll like it too.

19 posted on 03/05/2010 9:20:42 PM PST by El Gato ("The second amendment is the reset button of the US constitution"-Doug McKay)
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To: All

A Look at Iran
http://www.truthusa.com/IRAN.html


20 posted on 03/05/2010 9:23:12 PM PST by Cindy
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