NH and IA have proven themselves pretty irrelevent in the early selection process. The whole primary process needs to be overhauled, period, and it should stop being so absurdly early.
after IA and NH, it was pretty much whittled down to McCain and Romney and McCain succeeded in stopping Romney in NH. If Romney had a solid win in NH, he would have been the nominee.
If there is a grassroots conservative candidate in ‘12 (Palin or somebody), he/she almost has to win IA and NH to get momentum to go the distance.