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An interesting aspect of this court martial is the fact that Lakin is a LTC(P). That would mean that the board with likely be composed of 0-6s and above. Not sure if it could also include any other LTC(P)s. If I was Lakin, I'd want all 0-6s who have no chance of making BG. What other potential members would be in a better, and safe position to say FUBO.

The court martial judge is also likely to be an 0-6 and there aren't many 0-7 JAG officers, so political pressure may not be much of a factor there.

If I was a betting man, I would bet Lakin is going to get convicted. Since the court martial board also determines the sentence, I think Lakin would have a chance with a very light sentence that may include only a small temporary reduction in pay, but not a reduction in rank. At that point, I think he will simply be permitted to retire or spend his last two years in a nothing position.

"That would mean that the board with likely be composed of 0-6s and above. Not sure if it could also include any other LTC(P)s. If I was Lakin, I'd want all 0-6s who have no chance of making BG. What other potential members would be in a better, and safe position to say FUBO."

You raise great points. The rules demand that if he elects to go with a panel, that they must be 0-6s or above. but, it's Lakin's prerogative to go with just the judge. I would actually expect him to take that option.

Once the trial judge rules the orders lawful, a jury's decision is a foregone conclusion. Nullification isn't going to come into play here.

"I think Lakin would have a chance with a very light sentence that may include only a small temporary reduction in pay, but not a reduction in rank. At that point, I think he will simply be permitted to retire or spend his last two years in a nothing position"

I will have to disagree here. He's an 0-6. If he's convicted at GCM of the of missing movement and the several specification of failure to obey, he's not going to keep his commission. He'll definitely face some confinement, some forfeiture, rank and dismissal. Those are serious charges for a commissioned officer, and the punishment will be commensurate. The max punishment he's looking at is dismissal (dishonorable), complete forfeiture and around 4 years confinement. He's won't get the max (probably), but he's not going to get a slap on the wrist, not as an 0-6.