Ranking Those 99 House Races by Degree of Difficulty for GOP Challengers

The Campaign Spot - NationalReview.com ^ | May 06, 2010 | Jim Geraghty

[feralcat]

Here are my 99 races, grouped into five levels of difficulty. I’ve used three different measurements – the Department of Homeland Security’s old color-code alert system, a comparable degree of difficulty to beating NFL teams, and a quick assessment.

[feralcat]

This very interesting list of competitive House races (of seats currently held by Democrats) will be useful for anyone deciding which House races to contribute to or volunteer for. I'd hate to contribute to a candidate who has no chance or who really doesn't need my donation.

Of course, my district (CA-12, Jackie Speier-D) is not on the list because whatever brain-dead RINO the GOP nominates here will be lucky to get 25% of the vote. You people who live in competitive congressional districts have no idea how lucky you are.

[freespirited]

I dont get why the Stupak seat is seen as so hard for the GOP to win. I know the district leans a little toward the RAT party but under the circumstances I would think the GOP has at least an even shot.

[Past Your Eyes]

I see both of my NH seats are in the Blue section. I sure hope that’s true. We also need to hold onto Judd Gregg’s Senate seat as he is retiring and Hodes thinks the seat should belong to him. (Gag reflex suppressed.)

[colorado tanker]

Looks like a couple of our districts might flip. :-))

[St. Louis Conservative]

One step at a time fellas.....first thing is we NEED to win both HI-01 and PA-12 this month. The GOP has had an embarrassing losing streak in special elections.

[Proud_USA_Republican]

"Neil Abercrombie’s seat in Hawaii"

LOL. I was talking to my father, a lifetime GOP'er and lived on Oahu since 1960 yesterday. We were talking about the elections coming up, and when I mentioned Abercrombie, my father said, "What do I think of the man? Well, if I saw him crossing the street while I was driving, I would probably run him over. The only way it could get better is if Obama and him were holding hands while crossing."

I couldn't stop laughing. Of all Hawaii politicians, my Dad loathes him the most, even more than Akaka or Inoyue.

[cripplecreek]

I feel pretty good about the Michigan 7th district race despite the massive SEIU warchest of Mark Schauer. It will look even better when its only a two man race.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2507819/posts

[cripplecreek]

I don't think the stupak race will be all that tough but they damn sure don't need to elect SEIU GOP puppet Jason Allen to that district. Benishek is the way to go there and it should be an easy win if the democrats nominate a far lefty.

GOP Senators, SEIU Taxpayer Giveaways, Campaign Cash and More, OH MY!

[p. henry]

Speaking of California seats, I see that Filner’s seat is part of the orange group. There is no way that Filner will lose. If this is typical of the orange group, we are probably looking at no more than one-half of the listed seats turning over.

[Pollster1]

Interesting, I’m marking this for later analysis.

[goldfinch]

bump for later

[Mrs. Don-o]

Good point, I’m bookmarking this.