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The previous PPIC poll showed Fiorina with 24%, Campbell with 23%, and DeVore with 8%. Here's what you need to know:
- Chuck DeVore has doubled his support from the last PPIC poll -- and he's within the margin of error of the front-runner.
- The distance from the first to third is narrowed into the single digits -- ground easily covered by Election Day.
- As in every poll of this year, Campbell's numbers are static.
- This poll was taken after Fiorina's big endorsements, and after the launch of her massive media blitz. All that got her a single point.
Erick Erickson from RedState.com has the best analysis out there! We provide the entire post below. It is Not Chuck DeVore Who Must Drop Out. Carly Fiorina Must Go.
read online here The myth in the California Senate race is that Tom Campbell has corralled the moderate/left votes, and Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore are splitting the conservative vote between them. In this myth, DeVore, as the lower-polling candidate, functions as a “spoiler” for Fiorina — who would otherwise win with a united conservative base behind her.As with all myths, this one is wholly false.
Of the major polls taken on CA-Sen in the past 90 days, only five of them explicitly polled on ideological identification: Rasmussen, two SurveyUSA polls, LAT/USC, and Field. A survey of those five polls reveals the following:
1) The ideological breakdowns among the CA-Sen candidates broadly follow the overall polling breakdowns.
2) Tom Campbell, contrary to myth, has his base in self-identified conservatives, and leads among them — even in categories in which he is antagonistic toward the ideological position, such as pro-lifers and gun owners.
3) There is little evidence of movement from one candidate to another, and hence of any “spoiler” role. The only such evidence is found in the SurveyUSA polls, in which Fiorina losses are almost exactly matched by DeVore gains; if sustained in other data sets, this arguably makes Fiorina a “spoiler” for DeVore, but not vice-versa.
The bottom line is that the DeVore-as-spoiler myth is a falsehood perpetrated by an increasingly worried and anxious Fiorina campaign that is already seeking to cast blame for its failures on third parties. There is no data to support it.
Individual polls, in reverse chronological order, and comments follow.
You can go to the link for this article to read the rest
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