I'll take Mitch Daniels (captures OH, IN, and IA) along with Paul Ryan for VP (gets MN, WI). That's 58 electoral votes right there. VA, NH, and NC will flip next election cycle due to a low young vote turnout since they're blaming Obama for their unemployment (32 more votes). All that's left is to concentrate efforts in FL and now the electoral college has a 117 vote swing, causing Obama to lose 290-248.
Granted there will be some changes to the vote count due to the Census but that's the general idea.
Good analysis, although I think Minnesota flipping just like that is a stretch. Wisconsin maybe.